Us Politics · resolved market
Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6b2d8d3cefc252d3043bf1ddf5da682684e31be09768435fa8c6f688f23fd92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ebb…b114backed Yes | 14c | 6,998$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 10c | 3,009$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.24 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 11c | 2,530$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.65 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…3f05backed Yes | 4c | 2,297$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 19c | 1,865$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.1 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 8c | 1,864$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.42 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked Yes | 10c | 1,754$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.42 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…eb69backed Yes | 11c | 1,010$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 42c | 601.58$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.91 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea33…28a3backed Yes | 7c | 580.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 564.54$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad09…01c7backed Yes | 4c | 559.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…4e64backed Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 5c | 436.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…df5cbacked No | 65c | 323.14$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 19c | 275.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc099…2ea5backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 9c | 189.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…db09backed Yes | 22c | 115.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +247%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 34c | 105$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…b75fbacked No | 67c | 104.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7019…61ddbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…8a25backed No | 80c | 61.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82db…c0c2backed Yes | 44c | 45.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…2307backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration?this page
- Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Jamie Dimon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Sarah Palin be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Steve Bannon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.