Us Politics · resolved market

Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd256865cb41795d18232a30daa2ae9219ad98b91e4864c8e6b67a1767dd76c7

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 1, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $93,285
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $96,040

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,285 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc288…edb1backed No	28c	8,658$2,440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,218.04	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed Yes	40c	4,521$1,816 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,816.3	97	46.4%45 W · 52 L	+9.5wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+63.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No	79c	3,681$2,908 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$773.28	36	58.3%21 W · 15 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No	69c	3,286$2,253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,032.38	172	25%43 W · 129 L	-6.1wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	61c	3,269$1,984 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,284.89	996	29.5%294 W · 702 L	-73.3wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes	47c	3,215$1,507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,507.11	73	31.5%23 W · 50 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed No	67c	3,000$2,010 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$990	77	28.6%22 W · 55 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes	23c	2,736$626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$625.83	72	27.8%20 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No	75c	2,321$1,733 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$587.94	176	33%58 W · 118 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb169…b67abacked Yes	71c	2,213$1,582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,582.05	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes	55c	2,192$1,212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,212.16	135	37.8%51 W · 84 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes	72c	2,123$1,526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,526.37	107	49.5%53 W · 54 L	+10.6wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+61.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f9a…86b2backed Yes	71c	2,001$1,422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,421.72	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x49db…2019backed Yes	13c	1,951$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.28	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes	19c	1,534$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.49	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-42%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91b0…f0b6backed Yes	72c	1,500$1,078 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,078.27	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+2.1wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed Yes	42c	1,311$554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$554.39	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69a4…bba9backed No	30c	903.09$268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$634.9	56	55.4%31 W · 25 L	+5.6wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9916…a2b2backed No	33c	893.68$292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$601.87	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	37c	846.61$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.82	963	19.8%191 W · 772 L	-32.4wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96fc…b79abacked Yes	70c	753.93$528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$527.75	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes	37c	710$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.25	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.17per pick	40cpaid	-59.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes	67c	700$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466	136	73.5%100 W · 36 L	+28.4wins	+0.21per pick	53cpaid	+47.4%equal weight	70+0.18 edge/pick
0xb799…c753backed Yes	13c	670$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.1	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-75.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes	6c	610$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.1	119	40.3%48 W · 71 L	+8.8wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa953…387abacked Yes	62c	597.26$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370.25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x133b…2f22backed No	40c	477.48$191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$286.39	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	+6.9wins	+0.17per pick	31cpaid	+68.8%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x569e…67dbbacked No	34c	450$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$297	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.17per pick	58cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No	31c	420.99$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$291.7	81	27.2%22 W · 59 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc726…c39abacked Yes	71c	350$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.25	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	57c	332.46$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	320	29.1%93 W · 227 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No	37c	319.19$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$199.51	125	31.2%39 W · 86 L	-6.6wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes	47c	303.5$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.24	88	43.2%38 W · 50 L	+3.6wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes	68c	294.12$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	-4.3wins	-0.11per pick	34cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4219…9711backed Yes	68c	293.26$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-3.6wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2998…b425backed Yes	64c	283.65$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.87	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3e7…a536backed No	36c	277.78$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.78	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+10%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e2…a960backed No	62c	255$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.9	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No	36c	254$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.56	46	34.8%16 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	30cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c3b…3ad8backed Yes	4c	235$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.52	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed Yes	61c	232.88$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.06	58	51.7%30 W · 28 L	-4.6wins	-0.08per pick	60cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xea33…28a3backed Yes	54c	223.37$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes	65c	222$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.19	58	34.5%20 W · 38 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	30cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes	67c	204.85$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.25	82	19.5%16 W · 66 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f09…b06ebacked Yes	37c	202.7$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef8c…2686backed Yes	65c	200$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.19per pick	36cpaid	-74.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed No	28c	200$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed No	72c	194.44$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.55	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+17%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1013…45cfbacked Yes	63c	186.32$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.11	20	35%7 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed No	75c	181$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.25	49	34.7%17 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-18%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe900…6cdcbacked Yes	22c	175$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.75	40	25%10 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No	29c	166.31$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.26	303	19.1%58 W · 245 L	-20.6wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed21…f13abacked Yes	12c	166$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5a46…9050backed No	33c	156.36$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.76	9	88.9%8 W · 1 L	+2.7wins	+0.30per pick	59cpaid	+65%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	55c	155.18$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.03	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x693f…8fcebacked Yes	66c	152.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.29per pick	62cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x88ba…eeaabacked Yes	66c	151.52$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No	32c	149.92$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.82	355	19.7%70 W · 285 L	-16.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed Yes	47c	146.78$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.51	99	44.4%44 W · 55 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+10%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ca…563fbacked Yes	70c	145$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.5	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2104…a495backed No	42c	141.35$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.17	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x873a…dcadbacked No	36c	138.89$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.89	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8bb5…b365backed Yes	66c	137$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.04	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	69cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb544…0977backed Yes	73c	136.88$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+30%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes	29c	132.98$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.9	177	13%23 W · 154 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1442…5a8fbacked No	30c	130$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa40e…53ddbacked Yes	66c	126$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.16	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.11per pick	58cpaid	+64.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes	50c	120$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+1.5wins	+0.12per pick	27cpaid	+53.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	31c	118.87$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.96	567	33.2%188 W · 379 L	-40.9wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes	19c	115$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.45	51	49%25 W · 26 L	+4.3wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No	66c	114.35$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.38	142	41.5%59 W · 83 L	+9.3wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbed0…77c7backed Yes	29c	114$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.06	61	37.7%23 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No	31c	111$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.06	210	22.4%47 W · 163 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc84a…9099backed No	59c	109.99$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.5	83	77.1%64 W · 19 L	+8.9wins	+0.11per pick	66cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed No	13c	104.31$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.75	51	35.3%18 W · 33 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No	70c	103$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.9	103	47.6%49 W · 54 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de2…441dbacked Yes	66c	100.76$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.5	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes	34c	100$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	180	33.3%60 W · 120 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed No	25c	100$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb870…ea5dbacked Yes	64c	100$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	284	7.7%22 W · 262 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe77e…bb3dbacked Yes	61c	100$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	34	23.5%8 W · 26 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a3…cc69backed No	32c	99.99$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.99	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7012…4035backed No	39c	98.36$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x566d…d58fbacked Yes	68c	88.87$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	28	50%14 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadaf…1ddebacked Yes	61c	81.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a0b…da3abacked No	19c	79.11$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.11	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682a…3c69backed Yes	30c	76.4$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No	42c	76.31$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.57	216	34.3%74 W · 142 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No	37c	75.11$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.32	95	33.7%32 W · 63 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No	66c	65$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.1	223	47.5%106 W · 117 L	+10.7wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No	80c	64.29$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.86	169	43.2%73 W · 96 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd16…9e21backed Yes	18c	60$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x946f…6a27backed No	55c	57.9$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.08	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74f7…77c3backed Yes	45c	55.56$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes	75c	50$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-6.8wins	-0.20per pick	42cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0xe804…617cbacked Yes	67c	50$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.67per pick	67cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No	56c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	149	40.9%61 W · 88 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…94d1backed Yes	65c	49.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf66b…1607backed No	37c	48.7$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.68	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.17per pick	23cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration?this page
Will Bernie Sanders be a member of the Trump administration?No won
Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration?No won
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? No won
Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration?No won
Will Jamie Dimon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? No won
Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration?No won
Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration?No won
Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? No won
Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration?No won
Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? No won
Will Sarah Palin be a member of the Trump administration?No won
Will Steve Bannon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event