Us Politics · resolved market
Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x474e5d63beff70556481c02b1d58db504f59c9fc7695d9d93a97fa8a9d6766aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ce6…26bdbacked Yes | 39c | 2,580$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.11 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fc…fd7ebacked No | 50c | 2,377$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,831$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.12 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ba…d0c6backed No | 36c | 907.5$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed No | 52c | 886.92$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.52 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 51c | 856.14$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.13 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54c9…503cbacked Yes | 45c | 699.9$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…45cfbacked Yes | 37c | 698.38$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.96 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 3c | 611$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed Yes | 52c | 579.25$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.93 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef9…49fdbacked No | 75c | 520$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 62c | 500$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.65 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 6c | 442$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed No | 47c | 426.53$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.51 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 37c | 370$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.2 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 18c | 347.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked No | 71c | 317.75$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.79 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 312.5$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.41 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 5c | 304.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 61c | 304.8$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.59 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 70c | 292.67$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.9 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 77c | 287.89$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…d932backed Yes | 15c | 279.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 51c | 273.04$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.14 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed No | 42c | 253.37$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.37 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e7…a536backed No | 50c | 246.46$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.23 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 21c | 230.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…fa38backed No | 77c | 212$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x693f…8fcebacked Yes | 51c | 193.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cf…b8d3backed Yes | 19c | 172.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +124%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 28c | 161.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 17c | 139$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 35c | 122.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.33 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 48c | 120.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 27c | 102.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 46c | 101.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…6ea2backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa832…179bbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 12c | 94.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 63c | 71.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 62c | 70.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 38c | 66.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 38c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…94d1backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…19a4backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…7bdfbacked Yes | 49c | 40.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…fda5backed Yes | 58c | 34.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5d…9dc1backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed Yes | 38c | 31.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c9…09d9backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2286…c31fbacked Yes | 47c | 30.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 79c | 28.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…bad1backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration?this page
- Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Jamie Dimon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Sarah Palin be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Steve Bannon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.