TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$321,409
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$338,074

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $321,409 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29bd…80c9backed No0c25,520$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No26c21,628$5,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,625.072119%4 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes61c11,609$7,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,475.87458.1%43 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes61c11,449$7,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,418.8613537.8%51 W · 84 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f17…5df1backed No36c10,886$3,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,953.25837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No32c8,699$2,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,786.8819236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5d…cc80backed Yes65c8,131$5,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,840.92933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed No43c7,108$3,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,058.692657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No26c5,621$1,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.012825%7 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeff3…4e66backed Yes68c5,337$3,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,704.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes4c5,250$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,03013714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x225b…422abacked Yes65c4,564$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,613.462138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked No45c4,443$1,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,981.823560%21 W · 14 L+7.5wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+85.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xcc23…8bc9backed Yes60c4,055$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,634.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-56.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30b8…f41fbacked Yes67c4,035$2,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02e3…5deebacked Yes75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No2c4,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8011121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x05c8…f5a6backed Yes75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7eb…45afbacked Yes75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked No29c3,590$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.144032.5%13 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid+5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes64c3,500$2,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.5211936.1%43 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No30c3,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.912630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd090…ba82backed Yes77c3,300$2,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e09…220abacked No22c3,300$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed No38c3,121$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1844850%24 W · 24 L+9.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+346.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes52c3,113$1,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,504.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+123.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No49c3,034$1,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.776145.9%28 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No52c3,000$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5463831.6%12 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+157.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7442…19eabacked No1c2,999$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed No36c2,995$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.863729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f29…4577backed No46c2,937$1,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb428…13bfbacked Yes57c2,615$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.771330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No2c2,546$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9211120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed No50c2,379$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.812454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No58c2,318$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.65837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c1…c739backed Yes38c2,070$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.46560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+36%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes54c2,042$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.886459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe352…f259backed No23c2,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4602227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c5c…1412backed Yes42c1,815$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.151233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes59c1,751$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.318536.5%31 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5d3…b524backed Yes62c1,640$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c49…7af9backed No37c1,609$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.921338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick58cpaid-42.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed No33c1,566$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.2719348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe065…d25fbacked Yes43c1,539$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.821258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes69c1,449$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.281850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes75c1,390$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.463625%9 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No56c1,385$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.8811538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90b9…1951backed Yes68c1,300$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+91.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Yes28c1,261$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.974040%16 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e82…17c7backed Yes60c1,206$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+96.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No52c1,200$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6188150.6%41 W · 40 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d41…9316backed No52c1,081$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.16540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-43.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No61c1,065$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.1718425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9df8…4961backed Yes40c987.1$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.25666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No58c986.66$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5745339.6%21 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8979…f003backed Yes49c947.95$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.45666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa24f…6c63backed Yes77c919.9$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.69580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a52…8db2backed Yes67c900$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed Yes32c881.51$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.63540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+302.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a5d…185dbacked No57c862.95$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.492650%13 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No31c858.29$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.844111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes63c840$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.85343.4%23 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98a7…df9ebacked No3c800$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick4cpaid-16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No24c799.99$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18812545.6%57 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked Yes62c799$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.624951%25 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3860…6ae1backed Yes59c750$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes70c744.69$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.8413943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96df…1f97backed No71c702.97$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d5c…aad0backed Yes61c700$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2722100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+113.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b19…2283backed No31c699.96$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.99333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3252744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes67c600$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1982744.4%12 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+143.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No45c599.99$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.0410145.5%46 W · 55 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa555…3a5abacked Yes47c599.98$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+62.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe948…61e1backed No38c579.55$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.43450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe340…39f9backed Yes52c570.18$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.932429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8063…b886backed No68c557.68$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.87837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+80%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes64c548.74$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.694845.8%22 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22f0…ae31backed Yes77c530$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1211553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed No56c526.82$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.024226.2%11 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-45.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes44c519.68$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.046540%26 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7af6…83cabacked No33c506.49$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.4970%0 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7612…d195backed Yes48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2601100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed No31c500$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.122433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-44%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b26…b3f6backed Yes66c482.65$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.721435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-41.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64fa…2f1fbacked Yes65c480$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5673…98fdbacked No22c468.03$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x434a…5218backed Yes63c446.07$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.51933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf245…1df4backed Yes45c436.08$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.483935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc02…97b7backed Yes72c411$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.61666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No32c407.57$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.358331.3%26 W · 57 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49b1…0f4dbacked No35c407.23$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.111631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1de9…be76backed Yes68c405.35$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.71250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d85…4961backed Yes47c402.98$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.582100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+177.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee3…3c83backed Yes50c402$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-84.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1e2…eddabacked Yes48c383.91$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No22c377.32$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3231840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44bc…c53ebacked Yes60c368.87$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.372030%6 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+50.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d7d…ec26backed Yes62c367$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb637…4c42backed Yes42c338.83$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+64.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.