TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Broncos vs. Bills

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Billsof Broncos, Bills
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,103,431
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,282,758

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,103,431 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 340 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb35b…fc08backed Broncos4c744,521$26,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,556.4617823%41 W · 137 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Broncos3c242,402$8,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,035.638218.3%15 W · 67 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Broncos8c74,043$5,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,604.5920634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a2…6af8backed Bills75c67,739$50,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,071.6912570.4%88 W · 37 L+12.8wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+15.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0b0e…78ddbacked Broncos18c65,002$11,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,700.353943.6%17 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1638…339bbacked Broncos20c58,102$11,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,604.777041.4%29 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d9…ad02backed Broncos20c45,171$9,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,034.123767.6%25 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Broncos19c25,110$4,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,801.9616545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3080…275abacked Broncos24c23,546$5,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,616.17616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-66.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Broncos18c21,000$3,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,789.984436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Bills80c20,000$16,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00025137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e3e…b656backed Broncos19c15,789$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0002864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked Bills76c15,163$11,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,635.394746.8%22 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Broncos18c13,378$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,390.4344246.8%207 W · 235 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30bc…2529backed Broncos19c13,326$2,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,527.591838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…b3c5backed Broncos20c11,900$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,379.51513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x865c…ea31backed Broncos0c11,101$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-87.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Broncos21c11,000$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3108951.7%46 W · 43 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc32…78e9backed Broncos19c10,626$2,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,018.9430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Broncos24c10,108$2,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,464.322638.9%88 W · 138 L-1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Bills80c10,000$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0007042.9%30 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dd0…7b4fbacked Broncos19c6,845$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,323.664323.3%10 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xada5…a69ebacked Broncos19c6,842$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09df…5ca9backed Broncos6c6,601$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.083953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ca3…5aa6backed Bills78c6,498$5,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,434.334100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x578c…9661backed Bills80c6,250$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Bills80c6,228$4,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,245.5428447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76f5…0e1abacked Broncos19c6,196$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick32cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1d…c4c8backed Broncos9c6,171$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.653116.1%5 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-58.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Broncos20c6,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2002626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb68f…22f4backed Broncos19c5,263$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Broncos18c5,120$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.4541540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Broncos20c5,065$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.967833.3%26 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf509…67b9backed Broncos18c5,003$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Bills80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00014757.1%84 W · 63 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Bills73c4,854$3,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.731848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Broncos23c4,500$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04036246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Broncos20c4,445$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.9714837.2%55 W · 93 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6371…c2bfbacked Bills78c4,191$3,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.871266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x292d…2c8dbacked Bills80c4,118$3,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.533070%21 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Broncos21c3,810$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Broncos18c3,781$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.6111346.9%53 W · 60 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Bills80c3,754$3,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.893844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ad…5c65backed Bills80c3,700$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a5e…c869backed Broncos21c3,625$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76811738.5%45 W · 72 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2317…c891backed Bills76c3,535$2,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.525650%28 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…7094backed Bills80c3,106$2,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.271145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-36.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de8…cfb9backed Broncos16c3,099$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.985939%23 W · 36 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Broncos5c3,064$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1555014%7 W · 43 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-71.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xae24…07c2backed Bills77c3,015$2,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.233941%16 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Broncos2c2,961$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.74311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf3a…ea40backed Broncos9c2,900$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe87a…6d01backed Broncos30c2,510$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.156428.1%18 W · 46 L-12.6wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-53.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x239a…76e5backed Bills80c2,500$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5005457.4%31 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Broncos1c2,346$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2714215.5%22 W · 120 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ad…bc27backed Broncos20c2,240$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f58…9c6abacked Bills79c2,175$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.972650%13 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3275…e7fcbacked Broncos26c2,076$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5504042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c91…9af7backed Bills75c2,000$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Bills79c2,000$1,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.538459.9%230 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa447…57a2backed Broncos19c1,808$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick35cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Bills80c1,785$1,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35719543.6%85 W · 110 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5808…154bbacked Broncos22c1,718$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.81833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21bd…ae93backed Bills80c1,644$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d69…9829backed Broncos13c1,547$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.258650%43 W · 43 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Broncos20c1,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010624.5%26 W · 80 L-12.6wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-40.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x80ec…fdc0backed Broncos20c1,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001681.3%13 W · 3 L+4.1wins+0.25per pick56cpaid+37.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x45e1…f42dbacked Bills79c1,484$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.8420733.8%70 W · 137 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe058…0bc3backed Broncos21c1,448$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.11216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed Bills73c1,384$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.7515252%79 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7653…42e7backed Broncos9c1,373$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5440%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8db6…da81backed Bills76c1,321$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.028149.4%40 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Broncos18c1,300$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23431854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Broncos20c1,250$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25011139.6%44 W · 67 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a0b…86c6backed Broncos3c1,241$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322722.2%6 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Bills80c1,230$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.89946.5%46 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Broncos20c1,229$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.5823850.8%121 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Broncos19c1,163$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.9114763.9%94 W · 53 L+12.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ff0…46e3backed Broncos30c1,159$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.9114457.6%83 W · 61 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd692…8b9abacked Bills79c1,153$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.553452.9%18 W · 16 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b9c…57b3backed Bills80c1,123$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.53580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+49.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x906b…fd3cbacked Broncos20c1,111$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.743455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Broncos13c1,056$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.337627.6%21 W · 55 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eda…1732backed Broncos19c1,044$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x200e…e239backed Broncos10c1,030$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.553151.6%16 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed Bills80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2006157.4%35 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b23…8278backed Broncos30c1,000$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.026758.2%39 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x159b…10cbbacked Broncos19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x205b…dd3cbacked Bills80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20014148.2%68 W · 73 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd234…43fcbacked Broncos13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1304337.2%16 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cec…1e3dbacked Broncos2c1,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254339.5%17 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7990…c870backed Bills75c871.55$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.58953.9%48 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2193…21f5backed Broncos19c850$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaebc…ca61backed Bills70c841.36$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.411154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1f0d…1876backed Broncos12c835.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.31020%2 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-64.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8200…f63dbacked Broncos19c827.56$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad3e…4422backed Bills71c818.77$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.443650%18 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x345a…9367backed Broncos20c801.05$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc59f…c364backed Broncos7c800$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542520%5 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c70…d0e0backed Broncos20c749.92$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.