TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Patriots vs. Bills

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Patriotsof Patriots, Bills
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,263,598
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,269,065

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,263,598 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 692 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Bills58c435,229$250,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250,618.3247738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1d…74ccbacked Patriots21c387,112$82,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304,183.923259.4%19 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+45.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Patriots26c367,934$96,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271,414.6430043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Bills77c320,425$247,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247,167.2612352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed88…f3c4backed Bills78c300,000$235,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234,999.888344.6%37 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Bills62c144,279$89,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89,399.6422548.4%109 W · 116 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Patriots22c127,980$28,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99,824.0117454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Patriots22c118,561$26,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,463.453348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed Patriots20c109,961$22,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,959.267035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Bills75c106,216$79,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,572.4114351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Patriots36c101,999$37,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,973.0110566.7%70 W · 35 L+12.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Patriots22c100,000$22,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78,00010333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Bills79c99,995$78,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,611.2310061%61 W · 39 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Bills78c70,523$55,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,158.0124551%125 W · 120 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Patriots20c69,000$14,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,879.9916545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02fc…2c31backed Patriots22c65,727$14,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,267.251258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+44.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Patriots21c65,000$13,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,35016836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Patriots22c48,640$10,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,977.65048%24 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Patriots25c46,029$11,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,496.6222950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Patriots20c43,423$8,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,559.9941851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Patriots75c41,222$31,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,128.439944.4%44 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Patriots21c40,306$8,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,765.827440.5%30 W · 44 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Bills77c39,467$30,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,581.0944652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Bills70c38,596$26,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,901.8931848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Bills70c37,107$25,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,853.3741947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed Bills79c36,000$28,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,4401942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc8f…a7bbbacked Bills80c32,506$26,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,004.85540%2 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick70cpaid-40%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Bills80c30,535$24,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,278.531464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Bills79c29,061$22,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,867.3441248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Bills75c28,675$21,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,569.228648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Patriots30c26,488$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,488.2918650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Patriots20c26,067$5,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,853.7324957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Patriots22c25,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,50013843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Patriots20c25,000$5,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,95014342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Bills79c24,367$19,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,249.934365.1%28 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Bills66c23,366$15,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,503.6920634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3672…edbdbacked Bills63c22,649$14,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,344.74250%21 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Bills79c20,362$16,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,038.537755.8%43 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Bills57c20,000$11,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,4003366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Patriots24c20,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,2008343.4%36 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e98…1f51backed Bills65c20,000$13,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,999.983652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Bills79c19,241$15,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,20011649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Patriots21c16,667$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,166.6711252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Bills39c14,996$5,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,835.3314147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7690…74e1backed Bills80c14,774$11,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,819.552343.5%10 W · 13 L-5.3wins-0.23per pick66cpaid-38.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Bills76c14,722$11,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,249.8825137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Bills51c14,479$7,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,338.457736.4%28 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0432…1660backed Bills60c14,018$8,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,3685540%22 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Patriots62c13,622$8,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,139.0819235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f05…c0b8backed Patriots78c13,562$10,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,921.242941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Bills74c13,198$9,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,765.813773%27 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x239a…76e5backed Bills79c12,919$10,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,205.785457.4%31 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17cb…3ab8backed Bills79c12,658$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Bills79c12,436$9,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,775.3324351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9c…fba5backed Bills78c11,812$9,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,213.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Bills79c10,000$7,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,90035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Patriots22c10,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,80016036.3%58 W · 102 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Bills76c9,806$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50014763.9%94 W · 53 L+12.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc98d…05d3backed Patriots52c8,762$4,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,200.68955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x39a5…c9a1backed Patriots21c8,581$1,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,778.952138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Patriots22c8,306$1,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,518.9834349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Patriots21c7,858$1,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,171.139744.3%43 W · 54 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Bills71c7,121$5,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,091.561148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff9…bb89backed Bills74c7,022$5,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,165.399952.5%52 W · 47 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Bills52c6,938$3,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,622.6812138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Patriots42c6,626$2,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,817.2420026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Bills52c6,502$3,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,388.9531056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Bills79c6,473$5,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,113.29359.1%55 W · 38 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Bills40c6,461$2,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,575.668446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Bills79c6,329$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick68cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Bills75c6,050$4,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,541.458550.6%43 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Bills66c6,000$3,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9604940.8%20 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Patriots35c5,714$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,714.296965.2%45 W · 24 L+9.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x45e1…f42dbacked Bills48c5,503$2,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,652.1620733.8%70 W · 137 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Patriots21c5,503$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,347.3719645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbb99…5d0fbacked Patriots38c5,485$2,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,375.163053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Bills36c5,293$1,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,884.371520%3 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Patriots21c5,000$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9506759.7%40 W · 27 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Patriots21c5,000$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9501942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb236…0ce5backed Patriots23c4,900$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,773475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick32cpaid+161.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Bills78c4,857$3,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,788.5832050.9%163 W · 157 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0f0…284fbacked Bills79c4,833$3,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,818.06633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.5wins-0.42per pick75cpaid-52.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x283d…0dadbacked Bills80c4,752$3,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,801.65955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd7d…4d56backed Bills78c4,500$3,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5101250%6 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Patriots63c4,485$2,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,640.0916254.9%89 W · 73 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x410b…5c3cbacked Patriots23c4,352$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,362.281338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Bills72c4,311$3,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,099.498959.6%53 W · 36 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xef3c…f731backed Bills80c4,297$3,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,437.432642.3%11 W · 15 L-6.1wins-0.23per pick66cpaid-38.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8b36…fd74backed Bills77c4,175$3,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,232.252231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bills79c4,143$3,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,262.051,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…366bbacked Bills74c3,925$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,900.52245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5916…8d4fbacked Bills70c3,881$2,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,730.847152.1%37 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bills75c3,693$2,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,763.2827348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x613b…823abacked Bills69c3,680$2,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,523.327851.3%40 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8926…5aacbacked Bills78c3,530$2,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,753.392864.3%18 W · 10 L+4.8wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+44.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Patriots30c3,485$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,432.0713435.8%48 W · 86 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae76…dce5backed Patriots22c3,475$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,710.527339.2%107 W · 166 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb256…b6dfbacked Patriots25c3,388$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,547.958659.3%51 W · 35 L+13.5wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+39%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0e3b…14fcbacked Bills78c3,294$2,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,576.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick79cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Bills63c3,294$2,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,075.12680.8%21 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+37.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.