NFL · resolved market
Patriots vs. Bills
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc099825fab4693445d89784cc269a53d65dd045cea38e4bff3b3e2b0355303bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Patriots, Bills
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,263,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,269,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,263,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 692 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Bills | 58c | 435,229$250,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250,618.32 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked Patriots | 21c | 387,112$82,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304,183.92 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Patriots | 26c | 367,934$96,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271,414.64 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Bills | 77c | 320,425$247,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247,167.26 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Bills | 78c | 300,000$235,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234,999.88 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Bills | 62c | 144,279$89,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89,399.64 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Patriots | 22c | 127,980$28,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99,824.01 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Patriots | 22c | 118,561$26,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92,463.4 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…3819backed Patriots | 20c | 109,961$22,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87,959.26 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Bills | 75c | 106,216$79,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79,572.41 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Patriots | 36c | 101,999$37,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,973.01 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Patriots | 22c | 100,000$22,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78,000 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Bills | 79c | 99,995$78,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78,611.23 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Bills | 78c | 70,523$55,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,158.01 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed Patriots | 20c | 69,000$14,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,879.99 | 165 | 45.5%75 W · 90 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02fc…2c31backed Patriots | 22c | 65,727$14,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,267.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Patriots | 21c | 65,000$13,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,350 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Patriots | 22c | 48,640$10,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,977.6 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Patriots | 25c | 46,029$11,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,496.62 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Patriots | 20c | 43,423$8,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,559.99 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Patriots | 75c | 41,222$31,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,128.43 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Patriots | 21c | 40,306$8,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,765.82 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Bills | 77c | 39,467$30,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,581.09 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Bills | 70c | 38,596$26,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,901.89 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Bills | 70c | 37,107$25,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,853.37 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed Bills | 79c | 36,000$28,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,440 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…a7bbbacked Bills | 80c | 32,506$26,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,004.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked Bills | 80c | 30,535$24,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,278.53 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Bills | 79c | 29,061$22,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,867.34 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Bills | 75c | 28,675$21,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,569.22 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Patriots | 30c | 26,488$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,488.29 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Patriots | 20c | 26,067$5,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,853.73 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Patriots | 22c | 25,000$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,500 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Patriots | 20c | 25,000$5,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,950 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Bills | 79c | 24,367$19,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,249.93 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Bills | 66c | 23,366$15,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,503.69 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked Bills | 63c | 22,649$14,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,344.7 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Bills | 79c | 20,362$16,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,038.53 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…c4a7backed Bills | 57c | 20,000$11,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,400 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Patriots | 24c | 20,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,200 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e98…1f51backed Bills | 65c | 20,000$13,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,999.98 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Bills | 79c | 19,241$15,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,200 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Patriots | 21c | 16,667$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,166.67 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Bills | 39c | 14,996$5,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,835.33 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…74e1backed Bills | 80c | 14,774$11,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,819.55 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -5.3wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Bills | 76c | 14,722$11,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,249.88 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Bills | 51c | 14,479$7,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,338.45 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Bills | 60c | 14,018$8,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,368 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Patriots | 62c | 13,622$8,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,139.08 | 192 | 35.4%68 W · 124 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…c0b8backed Patriots | 78c | 13,562$10,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,921.24 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ab…5eb9backed Bills | 74c | 13,198$9,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,765.81 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…76e5backed Bills | 79c | 12,919$10,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,205.78 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…3ab8backed Bills | 79c | 12,658$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Bills | 79c | 12,436$9,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,775.33 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…fba5backed Bills | 78c | 11,812$9,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,213.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Bills | 79c | 10,000$7,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,900 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Patriots | 22c | 10,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,800 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Bills | 76c | 9,806$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc98d…05d3backed Patriots | 52c | 8,762$4,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,200.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…c9a1backed Patriots | 21c | 8,581$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,778.95 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Patriots | 22c | 8,306$1,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,518.98 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Patriots | 21c | 7,858$1,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,171.13 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bills | 71c | 7,121$5,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,091.5 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff9…bb89backed Bills | 74c | 7,022$5,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,165.39 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Bills | 52c | 6,938$3,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,622.68 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Patriots | 42c | 6,626$2,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,817.24 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Bills | 52c | 6,502$3,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,388.95 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f2…702cbacked Bills | 79c | 6,473$5,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,113.2 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bills | 40c | 6,461$2,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,575.6 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Bills | 79c | 6,329$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 68cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Bills | 75c | 6,050$4,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,541.45 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Bills | 66c | 6,000$3,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,960 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…4563backed Patriots | 35c | 5,714$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,714.29 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +9.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…f42dbacked Bills | 48c | 5,503$2,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,652.16 | 207 | 33.8%70 W · 137 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Patriots | 21c | 5,503$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,347.37 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb99…5d0fbacked Patriots | 38c | 5,485$2,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,375.16 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Bills | 36c | 5,293$1,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,884.37 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Patriots | 21c | 5,000$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,950 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Patriots | 21c | 5,000$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,950 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…0ce5backed Patriots | 23c | 4,900$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,773 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +161.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Bills | 78c | 4,857$3,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,788.58 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f0…284fbacked Bills | 79c | 4,833$3,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,818.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…0dadbacked Bills | 80c | 4,752$3,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,801.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7d…4d56backed Bills | 78c | 4,500$3,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,510 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Patriots | 63c | 4,485$2,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640.09 | 162 | 54.9%89 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x410b…5c3cbacked Patriots | 23c | 4,352$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,362.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Bills | 72c | 4,311$3,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,099.49 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…f731backed Bills | 80c | 4,297$3,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,437.43 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…fd74backed Bills | 77c | 4,175$3,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,232.25 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bills | 79c | 4,143$3,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,262.05 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…366bbacked Bills | 74c | 3,925$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Bills | 70c | 3,881$2,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,730.84 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bills | 75c | 3,693$2,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,763.28 | 273 | 48.7%133 W · 140 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Bills | 69c | 3,680$2,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,523.32 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8926…5aacbacked Bills | 78c | 3,530$2,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,753.39 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Patriots | 30c | 3,485$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,432.07 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae76…dce5backed Patriots | 22c | 3,475$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,710.5 | 273 | 39.2%107 W · 166 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb256…b6dfbacked Patriots | 25c | 3,388$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,547.95 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +13.5wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +39%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…14fcbacked Bills | 78c | 3,294$2,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,576.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 79cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Bills | 63c | 3,294$2,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,075.1 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Patriots vs. Billsthis page
- Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 42.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 47.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 49.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Bills (-6.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Bills (-8.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.