NFL · resolved market

Spread: Bills (-8.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68f34934b1b920606dc7b6f74a8273258e5e7070169eb3ad7c0df4cf8aeaf481

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Patriotsof Bills, Patriots
Resolved: Oct 6, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $165,756
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $166,181

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,756 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9249…4f16backed Bills	46c	51,456$23,875 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23,875.44	176	47.7%84 W · 92 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Patriots	54c	40,000$21,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,400	105	66.7%70 W · 35 L	+12.6wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Patriots	54c	29,998$16,199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,799.18	225	48.4%109 W · 116 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfcc…441bbacked Bills	46c	21,739$10,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,000	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-3.9wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Bills	46c	14,761$6,790 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,790.18	293	56%164 W · 129 L	+14.0wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Bills	46c	14,000$6,440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,440	58	55.2%32 W · 26 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb790…8389backed Bills	47c	13,147$6,179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,179	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Patriots	53c	12,057$6,390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,666.85	143	51%73 W · 70 L	+8.4wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Patriots	54c	8,000$4,290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,710	513	52.2%268 W · 245 L	+16.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Patriots	54c	7,885$4,258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,627.65	611	48.6%297 W · 314 L	+10.7wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Patriots	53c	7,000$3,710 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,289.99	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Patriots	54c	4,000$2,160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,840	196	45.4%89 W · 107 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Patriots	54c	3,970$2,144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,826.2	89	59.6%53 W · 36 L	+7.4wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Bills	46c	2,070$944 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$943.71	236	47%111 W · 125 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac1…45dbbacked Patriots	54c	2,000$1,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$920	77	54.5%42 W · 35 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Bills	47c	1,904$895 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$894.84	141	54.6%77 W · 64 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Patriots	54c	1,833$990 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$843.34	1,065	51.3%546 W · 519 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bills	46c	1,364$627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$627.13	418	51.9%217 W · 201 L	+13.1wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50f8…5897backed Patriots	54c	1,111$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$511.11	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Patriots	54c	1,050$565 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$485	266	48.9%130 W · 136 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Bills	47c	1,000$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470	171	44.4%76 W · 95 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa52c…ef80backed Patriots	54c	739$399 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$339.94	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+38.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb7c…8eabbacked Patriots	54c	600$324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$276	136	52.2%71 W · 65 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8a4…9e63backed Bills	47c	531.91$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Bills	46c	500$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	265	47.2%125 W · 140 L	+10.4wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2c3…4d61backed Bills	48c	483.06$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.86	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa8d7…c17bbacked Patriots	52c	479.55$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$229.55	117	59.8%70 W · 47 L	+8.0wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Bills	46c	470.82$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.58	247	38.1%94 W · 153 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35de…b39abacked Bills	47c	425.53$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Bills	48c	416$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.68	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.11per pick	32cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Patriots	54c	401.85$215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.7	647	47.3%306 W · 341 L	+42.5wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Patriots	52c	381.78$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.25	600	49.3%296 W · 304 L	+21.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed Patriots	54c	372.22$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.22	152	52%79 W · 73 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Patriots	55c	363.64$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.64	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Patriots	55c	362.34$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.34	163	51.5%84 W · 79 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5d03…369abacked Bills	44c	324.7$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.87	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bills	45c	319.47$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.76	373	50.9%190 W · 183 L	+12.9wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb90…1917backed Bills	46c	300$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	70	48.6%34 W · 36 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Patriots	54c	300$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137	194	36.6%71 W · 123 L	-14.8wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf48d…fe48backed Patriots	54c	299.99$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138	149	49%73 W · 76 L	+7.9wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x279b…04f5backed Patriots	54c	277.78$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.78	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Bills	46c	269.33$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.89	134	50%67 W · 67 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0c…6825backed Bills	46c	249.99$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.99	105	37.1%39 W · 66 L	-12.5wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa097…fba7backed Bills	41c	243.9$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb6…25eabacked Patriots	54c	222.22$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.22	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Bills	46c	217$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.82	45	55.6%25 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e3…68b9backed Bills	46c	214$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.44	68	39.7%27 W · 41 L	-6.7wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7dd1…009bbacked Patriots	55c	200$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf339…e010backed Patriots	54c	200$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	196	54.1%106 W · 90 L	+15.6wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Patriots	54c	189.94$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.54	553	45%249 W · 304 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Patriots	55c	177.96$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.95	304	42.4%129 W · 175 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9205…ce7fbacked Bills	47c	159.57$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.1wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Patriots	54c	148.15$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.15	280	47.5%133 W · 147 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Patriots	55c	128$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.6	53	37.7%20 W · 33 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4142…1853backed Patriots	70c	125$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.5	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	21cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab3a…b091backed Patriots	53c	115$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.5	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Patriots	54c	110$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.6	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked Bills	44c	108.93$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.93	107	52.3%56 W · 51 L	+7.8wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7ea…9910backed Patriots	56c	107.14$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.14	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5340…5e2bbacked Bills	47c	106.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	107	50.5%54 W · 53 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Patriots	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	242	43.4%105 W · 137 L	-7.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd10…f782backed Patriots	54c	99.65$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.84	50	62%31 W · 19 L	+3.3wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0078…bca0backed Bills	55c	90.96$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.03	227	45.4%103 W · 124 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b38…a660backed Patriots	56c	90$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.6	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd75e…bc00backed Patriots	56c	89.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.29	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecf5…6a01backed Bills	46c	86.96$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-4.7wins	-0.16per pick	51cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc95f…357fbacked Patriots	54c	74.07$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.07	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40e4…9edabacked Patriots	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+3.0wins	+0.17per pick	45cpaid	+32.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Patriots	53c	53.19$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	245	51%125 W · 120 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02c7…3df7backed Bills	47c	53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.91	83	53%44 W · 39 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4884…9b0abacked Bills	47c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-4.5wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6692…1125backed Patriots	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xced0…c680backed Bills	54c	46.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	135	55.6%75 W · 60 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21b4…e064backed Patriots	55c	45.45$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.45	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2325…3256backed Patriots	55c	45.45$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.45	42	50%21 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f68…0e4bbacked Patriots	56c	44.64$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.64	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-4.7wins	-0.13per pick	56cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc1bb…c285backed Bills	47c	44$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.68	56	58.9%33 W · 23 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5318…2a91backed Bills	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	105	49.5%52 W · 53 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x22b8…7b6ebacked Patriots	54c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.4	170	60.6%103 W · 67 L	+12.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60f7…80d2backed Patriots	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-3.4wins	-0.15per pick	52cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa5f8…1affbacked Patriots	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	54	40.7%22 W · 32 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Patriots	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	198	44.9%89 W · 109 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe914…1707backed Patriots	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-3.0wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e30…9dadbacked Patriots	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	58cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2947…7bc9backed Patriots	55c	34.16$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.37	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.8wins	+0.15per pick	43cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28a1…435cbacked Patriots	54c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfca9…cb3dbacked Patriots	54c	27.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	44	31.8%14 W · 30 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Bills	46c	25.91$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.96	124	47.6%59 W · 65 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa614…70a4backed Patriots	55c	25.73$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.58	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb590…15d3backed Bills	62c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	42	50%21 W · 21 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bills (-8.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event