NFL · resolved market
Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3f6e27f2408992f412af788ed3d69dcdc7fea30982e357d1bab0b95afbef410
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 44c | 8,000$3,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,480 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Over | 56c | 7,172$4,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,006.8 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Over | 56c | 991.07$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 56c | 849.6$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.78 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 56c | 507$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.92 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 56c | 450$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Under | 45c | 390$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.5 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 44c | 361.76$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Under | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Under | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 45c | 260$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Under | 44c | 159.22$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…5a5dbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Over | 56c | 55.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 52c | 41.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…d132backed Over | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 47.5this page
- Patriots vs. BillsPatriots won
- Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 42.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 49.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Bills (-6.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Bills (-8.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.