NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bills (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f3cc22569eb57243068f696fb7391965fd2fe78459ce29c2a7d4aea323e23bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Bills, Patriots
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Patriots | 42c | 14,500$6,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,394.99 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Bills | 58c | 13,075$7,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,600.98 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Patriots | 44c | 5,329$2,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,984.51 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…16eabacked Patriots | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Patriots | 44c | 4,702$2,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,623.93 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Patriots | 44c | 4,500$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Bills | 56c | 4,423$2,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,476.92 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Patriots | 42c | 2,805$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.63 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…0d9cbacked Bills | 57c | 2,700$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Bills | 56c | 2,434$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.96 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb511…dedfbacked Bills | 56c | 2,222$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.32 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752f…9332backed Bills | 56c | 1,950$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Bills | 57c | 1,920$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…74a8backed Patriots | 44c | 1,800$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Bills | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5248…aabbbacked Bills | 57c | 1,666$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.62 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Patriots | 41c | 1,548$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.36 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Bills | 56c | 1,507$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.79 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Patriots | 43c | 1,494$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.17 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Bills | 58c | 1,320$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.67 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…9e63backed Bills | 58c | 1,301$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.31 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Bills | 57c | 1,140$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Bills | 55c | 1,129$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Patriots | 42c | 1,080$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.4 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Patriots | 44c | 1,005$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.85 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68ce…d06dbacked Bills | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Bills | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Patriots | 42c | 725.97$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.06 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Bills | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…35dcbacked Bills | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4e…437cbacked Bills | 56c | 454.63$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Patriots | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Bills | 57c | 426.32$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed Bills | 52c | 414$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.32 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Patriots | 44c | 400$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Patriots | 44c | 400$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Bills | 56c | 392.86$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Patriots | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Bills | 58c | 374$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.92 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Bills | 56c | 350$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bills | 51c | 290.59$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.76 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…c24dbacked Bills | 57c | 282.52$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.04 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Bills | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Patriots | 45c | 250$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bills | 54c | 240$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Bills | 58c | 230$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.4 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Patriots | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb118…947ebacked Bills | 54c | 203.45$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Bills | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Patriots | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Patriots | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa795…a42bbacked Bills | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Bills | 57c | 162$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Patriots | 45c | 160$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…38dbbacked Bills | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4142…1853backed Patriots | 62c | 140$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Bills | 58c | 125.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…9edabacked Patriots | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…98f9backed Bills | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Bills | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Patriots | 44c | 94.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Bills | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…c285backed Bills | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Bills | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ba…8600backed Bills | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…877cbacked Bills | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…9903backed Bills | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Bills | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc098…01bebacked Bills | 58c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…3d76backed Bills | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe065…d25fbacked Bills | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Patriots | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…7ab8backed Bills | 58c | 23.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ef…b1babacked Bills | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bills (-6.5)this page
- Patriots vs. BillsPatriots won
- Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 42.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 47.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 49.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Bills (-8.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.