NFL · resolved market
Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 49.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1414cd8d8a2d64192c50bd107d8f63140b3e1664884be1a1e35aa34944e1dce8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Under | 52c | 23,814$12,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,530.47 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Over | 49c | 11,304$5,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,526.07 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa4…e9d2backed Over | 48c | 10,420$5,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,001.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Over | 51c | 9,804$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -8.5wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 48c | 9,657$4,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,660.96 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,880 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…2411backed Over | 48c | 4,200$2,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,016 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 51c | 3,483$1,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,706.67 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…a9f2backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.98 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 51c | 1,357$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.5 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…ce10backed Over | 49c | 775.2$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.85 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 45c | 536.55$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.09 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Under | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Under | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 51c | 448.17$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b6…9c1fbacked Over | 49c | 437.29$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Over | 49c | 408.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Under | 54c | 366.6$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.64 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Over | 47c | 361.07$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.7 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 301.73$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.3 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 50c | 291.37$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c3…3242backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…38b2backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3491…5909backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f68…0e4bbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfeeb…e85ebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2059…5203backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ec…da7ebacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50c…66b7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 49.5this page
- Patriots vs. BillsPatriots won
- Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 42.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 47.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Bills (-6.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Bills (-8.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.