TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Sabres vs. Ducks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ducksof Sabres, Ducks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$673,311

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $673,311 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 640 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5bec…b215backed Ducks49c119,851$58,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,285.9216442.7%70 W · 94 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Sabres51c51,250$26,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,137.548549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebbb…4214backed Ducks48c46,037$22,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,034.8712835.9%46 W · 82 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Sabres42c38,732$16,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,375.861,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Ducks53c38,205$20,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,123.7427448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Sabres46c20,507$9,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,499.5189636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Ducks48c18,788$9,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,701.921,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Sabres48c16,509$7,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,844.8599638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Sabres52c16,000$8,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,32061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Sabres51c15,068$7,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,684.6312838.3%49 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc43…96d3backed Sabres50c15,000$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,5002951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Sabres49c11,896$5,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,874.861,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Sabres43c11,385$4,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,881.8851045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Ducks49c10,015$4,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,147.1860249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Ducks48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,20032946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Ducks49c9,396$4,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,791.9222550.2%113 W · 112 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Sabres51c8,176$4,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,169.8289249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Ducks49c8,102$3,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,132.045949.2%29 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Sabres52c7,733$3,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,997.6330348.8%148 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Ducks49c7,499$3,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,839.3743548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Ducks50c7,000$3,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,47030552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Sabres52c6,980$3,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,606.712,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Ducks57c6,353$3,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,746.812,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Ducks49c5,813$2,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,966.1527850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Sabres52c5,769$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Ducks51c5,643$2,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,765.2563249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Sabres52c5,436$2,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,810.3375251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Sabres60c5,079$3,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,04385250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Sabres52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6006640.9%27 W · 39 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Ducks48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,60011553%61 W · 54 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Ducks48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,60013948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Ducks49c4,968$2,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,533.6747951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Ducks47c4,811$2,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.668544.7%38 W · 47 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x607d…53a1backed Sabres52c4,808$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50013446.3%62 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Sabres48c4,804$2,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,294.062,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Ducks47c4,750$2,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,517.515949.7%79 W · 80 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Sabres48c4,633$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,240.093,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Sabres48c4,403$2,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,113.4267051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Sabres52c4,250$2,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,21016843.5%73 W · 95 L-14.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Sabres49c4,163$2,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,033.1213437.3%50 W · 84 L-0.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sabres67c3,903$2,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,612.431,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Sabres52c3,846$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00060337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Ducks50c3,800$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,900.161,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Sabres52c3,784$1,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,968.2328340.3%114 W · 169 L-24.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Ducks53c3,682$1,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,723.2211950.4%60 W · 59 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Ducks63c3,502$2,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.291,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Sabres52c3,500$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8201,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd3…41f8backed Ducks51c3,422$1,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,675.333240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2196…da90backed Sabres51c3,122$1,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,592.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Ducks48c3,114$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,617.0941850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x666f…9860backed Sabres0c3,069$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.339655.2%53 W · 43 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Ducks47c2,818$1,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,485.7930259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xab75…cce0backed Ducks50c2,801$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,400.421764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Ducks54c2,779$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.744553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Sabres51c2,759$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4002857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Ducks69c2,653$1,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.1457157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c6…75adbacked Sabres28c2,638$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.7340152.4%210 W · 191 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce4d…a7fabacked Sabres38c2,549$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.7625555.3%141 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Ducks48c2,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30084953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Sabres51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,27512436.3%45 W · 79 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Ducks49c2,468$1,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,258.6964242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Ducks48c2,305$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,193.741,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Ducks62c2,296$1,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.1644848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Ducks49c2,280$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.6614954.4%81 W · 68 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Ducks49c2,200$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.9983652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Ducks49c2,133$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.542,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Ducks48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.3121849.5%108 W · 110 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Sabres26c1,960$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50043743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Sabres46c1,950$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.993354.5%18 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Sabres51c1,949$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Sabres52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00032151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Ducks49c1,866$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.471,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Ducks53c1,861$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.139550.5%48 W · 47 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Ducks50c1,817$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.483850%19 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Sabres51c1,805$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.6361950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Ducks49c1,800$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92445749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa967…0c8fbacked Ducks53c1,708$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.221442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Ducks49c1,633$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.8361959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Sabres52c1,540$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.844551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30d9…41c7backed Ducks49c1,455$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7422458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01a5…312ebacked Sabres25c1,437$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.347244.4%32 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Ducks49c1,399$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.4962346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Sabres50c1,242$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.981,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Ducks49c1,214$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.4191653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Sabres11c1,156$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.657317.8%13 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Ducks49c1,106$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.1836648.6%178 W · 188 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Ducks48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.664753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Sabres52c1,041$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.3242847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba9c…d2c1backed Ducks50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5009853.1%52 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Ducks50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50029551.9%153 W · 142 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Sabres48c972$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.0286852.4%455 W · 413 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6650…7dcebacked Sabres51c970$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.72142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Ducks54c927.47$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.471566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x49a5…b220backed Ducks49c900$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4595952.5%31 W · 28 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0b…4857backed Sabres41c897.93$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.9721846.8%102 W · 116 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Ducks47c890.84$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.3955446.4%257 W · 297 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Ducks52c865.19$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.2912552%65 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Sabres63c835.85$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.4937754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Sabres51c800$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40838445.8%176 W · 208 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0acc…9dc1backed Ducks50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40025052.8%132 W · 118 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.