NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93f048ad8f9cf77c604ffc25e3517849f62773c13c59567ce3100d5a0b392b4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ducksof Sabres, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,762 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Sabres | 32c | 2,867$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.51 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4219…7855backed Ducks | 56c | 2,004$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.03 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ducks | 68c | 1,778$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.33 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…6e05backed Sabres | 46c | 1,040$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.17 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…1088backed Sabres | 42c | 759.99$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ab…cf5abacked Ducks | 62c | 514.23$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Ducks | 68c | 499.99$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Sabres | 27c | 482$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.14 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Ducks | 51c | 381.78$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.58 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ducks | 71c | 379.22$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.46 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Ducks | 68c | 255.9$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.01 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Sabres | 32c | 220$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Ducks | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sabres | 37c | 165.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Ducks | 69c | 160$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…86d2backed Sabres | 32c | 146.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Sabres | 50c | 145.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Ducks | 73c | 140$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Ducks | 69c | 85.02$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Ducks | 68c | 46.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Sabres | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Ducks | 69c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Sabres | 47c | 38.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Sabres | 49c | 37.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Ducks | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b70…3102backed Sabres | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f5…0688backed Sabres | 49c | 31.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Sabres | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Ducks | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd418…b7a0backed Sabres | 71c | 17.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Sabres vs. DucksDucks won
- Sabres vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.