TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,401,721
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,428,541

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,401,721 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,537 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x008b…b476backed Yes28c311,212$87,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223,213.74850%4 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+132.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad5d…8441backed No0c116,179$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+92.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96c4…bfdebacked No3c114,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,200922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid-47.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x419d…487fbacked No2c101,854$2,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,354.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed No77c98,217$75,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,358.175834.5%20 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes30c96,468$28,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,924.795733.3%19 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc109…1ad2backed Yes24c89,046$20,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,107.14771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.38per pick33cpaid+165.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No71c72,858$51,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,623.115265.4%34 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes26c71,751$18,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,832.785928.8%17 W · 42 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+80.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf0d…132dbacked No71c62,078$44,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,261.212650%13 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc103…1138backed Yes25c61,591$15,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,420.471060%6 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+58%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed No72c54,252$39,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,182.110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No0c50,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-22.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed No71c43,239$30,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,695.953441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x534b…b321backed Yes33c43,157$14,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,096.081741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7597…fa94backed No75c40,264$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,000.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdab1…d307backed Yes30c38,633$11,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,117.581216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb7…a3f8backed No72c37,749$27,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,262.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes27c36,413$9,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,718.475641.1%23 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0078…c9cdbacked No71c35,515$25,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,085.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c0e…434ebacked No72c34,890$25,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,113.871233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5696…9df8backed Yes23c33,623$7,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,756.62540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6931…0f3cbacked Yes28c32,194$9,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,043.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+251.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71e5…50a4backed Yes18c31,339$5,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,568.28812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid-32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e8e…0f51backed No73c31,291$22,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,851.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9be…1d98backed Yes30c28,885$8,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,098.06475%3 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick26cpaid+149.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No77c28,535$21,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,988.723043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb5…b536backed No71c28,000$19,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,979.962352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick62cpaid+0.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed No77c25,800$19,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,905.992250%11 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes38c25,309$9,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,614.4516854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5923…a3f7backed Yes26c25,012$6,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,590.91450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa416…025ebacked Yes31c24,680$7,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,145.352937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd18f…681ebacked Yes25c22,441$5,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,804.37911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-55.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7e4…1009backed No66c21,593$14,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,350.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes28c21,546$6,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,415.72454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e91…85aabacked No71c20,859$14,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,779.06450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4124…5827backed Yes27c20,170$5,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,812.342339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x040e…8edfbacked Yes27c20,000$5,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,549.733542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc928…e2f6backed No71c19,964$14,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,085.4990%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No70c19,889$13,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,922.021540%6 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes26c19,685$5,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,589.62245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No72c19,665$14,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,095.725442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked No55c19,109$10,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,517.166021.7%13 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No73c19,000$13,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,849.727254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9884…b165backed Yes34c17,915$6,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,864.59333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No75c17,184$12,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,920.1541238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes27c17,131$4,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,452.3899629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No75c16,822$12,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,616.9935519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed No74c16,583$12,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,259.991225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid+89.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4f3…330dbacked No76c14,087$10,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,748.751711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2158…fe65backed No72c14,000$10,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,069.691323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-67.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad90…23d8backed Yes15c13,893$2,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,804.891838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+65.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed No71c13,828$9,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,826.211435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick61cpaid-41.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x42fa…1fc7backed No74c13,505$9,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,958.86425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick71cpaid-60.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc66…eb4bbacked No74c13,266$9,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,791.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes28c13,065$3,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,470.7217225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9969…c885backed No72c12,968$9,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,328.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bff…ffbebacked No71c12,657$8,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,941.861435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed No23c12,562$2,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,842.41145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes25c12,279$3,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,194.692412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-41.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75bb…0ac5backed Yes25c12,272$3,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,2042437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3a8…3dc0backed No0c12,210$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eaf…e291backed No0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e0f…fdf7backed Yes24c10,996$2,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,304.762100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+181.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes24c10,897$2,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,279.92742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick17cpaid+181.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bc5…a867backed Yes29c10,790$3,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,614.491050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4359…2552backed Yes29c10,783$3,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,708.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+64.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No76c10,554$7,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,985.458058.8%47 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a90…34eabacked Yes17c10,107$1,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,385.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+486.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d31…cb04backed Yes24c10,101$2,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,654.952050%10 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e5d…ad4fbacked Yes30c10,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,0002040%8 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a7a…06e4backed No74c10,000$7,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,400250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+257.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb139…bc2bbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4840…979bbacked Yes25c9,868$2,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,400.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick19cpaid+199.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e1b…c4c1backed No1c9,730$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid-27.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8ca…7229backed No72c9,600$6,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,9121560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81ab…d866backed Yes28c9,368$2,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,723.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+254.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb98…8bfdbacked Yes22c9,264$1,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,269.261618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No72c9,057$6,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,498.164052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No78c8,991$6,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,978.055642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No69c8,811$6,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,052.7515124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb409…d114backed No72c8,519$6,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,163.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed No73c8,384$6,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,114.091040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-36.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a61…1787backed Yes30c8,193$2,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,725.471233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc615…221dbacked No73c8,140$5,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,960.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8764…6d8fbacked No78c8,045$6,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,274.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No72c8,000$5,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7602839.3%11 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1123…2caebacked No73c7,631$5,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,603.9333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x383a…c380backed Yes17c7,599$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,285.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+189.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62d2…9eb7backed No79c7,500$5,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,923.22010%2 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-76.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64c8…73cebacked Yes71c7,366$5,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,102.57742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…7f26backed No69c7,227$5,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,016.571450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes28c7,200$2,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,195.831952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1fc…0ec1backed Yes21c7,164$1,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,635.44540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4f8…0361backed No66c7,161$4,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,744.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x724b…e88ebacked No70c7,148$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x144a…e06ebacked No72c7,000$5,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,009.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed No75c6,866$5,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,147.337041.4%29 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c34…026fbacked No74c6,800$5,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,032425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-68.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68d8…8c3fbacked Yes28c6,500$1,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,652.94837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+55.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.