TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,677,240
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,416,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,677,240 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 413 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x22d9…1888backed Yes1c269,847$3,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,438.940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04fa…6c06backed Yes2c143,738$3,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,503.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes4c73,373$2,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,623.361827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23cf…6dc4backed Yes2c70,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes17c39,114$6,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,779.58650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes3c38,480$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.85575.3%3 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid+48.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd051…3271backed Yes2c33,409$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84c4…3512backed Yes1c27,728$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes1c25,513$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.1540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb94b…95dbbacked Yes2c20,356$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes6c20,001$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.282218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-58.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes2c19,029$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.3510%0 W · 51 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a8f…f082backed Yes3c18,712$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.1850%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6af8…bac0backed Yes1c18,557$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a86…b39ebacked No68c17,296$11,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,517.244100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes1c16,707$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.51533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+113.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44e9…5798backed Yes2c15,533$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa244…8e63backed Yes1c14,427$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a0d…c6bebacked Yes2c13,488$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86a5…5ac2backed Yes7c10,905$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.8425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-68.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes4c9,976$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.611520%3 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-38.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfef6…9557backed Yes5c9,643$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7fc…fd7ebacked No79c9,638$7,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,023.5580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+38.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f6…b703backed Yes1c9,041$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.560%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes3c9,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701618.8%3 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick6cpaid+170%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa5a…4dafbacked Yes1c8,947$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes5c8,590$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.881225%3 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+50.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb65a…9ea7backed Yes5c8,567$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ee…590ebacked Yes2c8,554$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed Yes16c8,192$1,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,271.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a6f…d79abacked Yes2c7,759$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09d7…2dbfbacked Yes1c7,174$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33ae…a8b3backed Yes27c7,096$1,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,915.9830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x325a…3140backed Yes3c6,765$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc46c…946fbacked Yes3c6,658$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d6…8a40backed No76c6,598$5,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,570.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+44.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff0…d930backed Yes3c6,432$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x401a…1000backed No66c6,037$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,036.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef58…2f14backed Yes3c5,992$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7896…3e00backed Yes14c5,902$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes31c5,882$1,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,809.987919%15 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No66c5,490$3,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,841.15616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-74.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ccf…c90abacked No58c5,442$3,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,312.191172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+25.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes4c5,415$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.4456.7%3 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+272.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e63…5ebfbacked Yes1c5,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes1c5,155$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b0…c3f0backed Yes2c5,096$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb8…3da7backed Yes2c5,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-78.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc895…a981backed No70c4,903$3,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.683100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x778f…e2c3backed Yes2c4,821$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes1c4,760$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6410320.4%21 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes11c4,651$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.0933329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42cb…b392backed Yes2c4,636$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9af5…da0abacked Yes44c4,580$2,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,021.59728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-42.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd085…ba5cbacked Yes13c4,427$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed No65c4,182$2,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.151637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2764…a2a8backed Yes1c4,089$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5021…a8e1backed Yes21c4,000$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbed1…1094backed Yes32c3,925$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c27…ec9fbacked Yes13c3,724$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb4…8167backed No11c3,367$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,991.031376.9%10 W · 3 L+8.1wins+0.63per pick14cpaid+774.6%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed No67c2,920$1,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.873100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa94f…0045backed Yes6c2,888$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18e4…1c59backed Yes26c2,800$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e9a…934fbacked Yes1c2,673$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes14c2,570$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.441844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Yes9c2,419$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-74.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x800f…e161backed Yes2c2,401$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48c7…6c77backed Yes2c2,322$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacd8…e908backed Yes6c2,302$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f6…44b6backed No68c2,291$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95a3…046ebacked No10c2,283$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,055.11650%3 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+337.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad8c…4fedbacked Yes1c2,247$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5512…5941backed No65c2,224$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d26…4991backed Yes1c2,100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x823c…5046backed Yes20c2,099$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ff…8750backed Yes5c2,097$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+267.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8505…79f2backed No64c2,086$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.533100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+67.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2b7…cae8backed Yes49c2,034$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed Yes4c2,032$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed No49c2,031$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34a0…57f8backed Yes4c2,021$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e0b…25f9backed Yes1c1,969$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb73…a963backed Yes26c1,891$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7011…c6dabacked Yes2c1,889$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47ae…1fbabacked Yes7c1,881$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes3c1,878$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.73238.7%2 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-61.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x614a…6806backed Yes53c1,876$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ce…d575backed No74c1,841$1,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e15…1077backed Yes1c1,801$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2936…07f5backed Yes3c1,787$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b8…d6c2backed Yes2c1,771$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c21…bd2fbacked Yes2c1,764$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Yes4c1,729$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes33c1,686$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.91714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid+37.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d18…3ae2backed Yes3c1,675$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bcd…39f0backed Yes6c1,670$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cd2…1098backed Yes1c1,640$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7179…e8bcbacked Yes43c1,611$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5bf…8763backed Yes37c1,590$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.685332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.