Fifa International · resolved market
Will Netherlands beat Hungary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ddacb19fe4c229bf7c6c09208ef93315a7f2d55cde0ad82cc1d3977331d42ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 26c | 2,485$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.42 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 74c | 1,439$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.51 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 28c | 1,057$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.95 | 168 | 35.1%59 W · 109 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 72c | 1,006$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…59e2backed No | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 74c | 826.94$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.93 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3937…f693backed Yes | 73c | 724.14$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed No | 28c | 599.98$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 27c | 599.98$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8abf…6d69backed Yes | 73c | 598.66$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…e387backed No | 29c | 360.37$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 27c | 340.86$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.03 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b4…b423backed Yes | 73c | 298.4$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 72c | 276.39$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 249.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6be…e346backed Yes | 72c | 213.67$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…51f5backed Yes | 73c | 199.18$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…fa78backed Yes | 70c | 187.05$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…fbe0backed No | 29c | 187$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…fb2bbacked Yes | 73c | 168.09$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 73c | 165.33$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 21c | 163.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…08ccbacked Yes | 73c | 155.79$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 65c | 154.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e88…d46bbacked Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 28c | 129.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9937…6202backed Yes | 72c | 99.72$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdddb…d0b1backed Yes | 73c | 95.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +136.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…19ffbacked No | 30c | 76.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…6ddcbacked Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…8069backed Yes | 74c | 59.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467f…5f35backed Yes | 72c | 54.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43c…e595backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b0…19dbbacked Yes | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…f639backed Yes | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc3…0dfbbacked Yes | 73c | 34.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…c689backed Yes | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 156 | 45.5%71 W · 85 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…94d5backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6556…329fbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea8…bdfbbacked Yes | 73c | 17.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0f…addabacked Yes | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netherlands beat Hungary?this page
- Will Hungary beat Netherlands?No won
- Will the match between Netherlands and Hungary end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.