Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Learner Tien vs Alexander Shevchenko
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3471e9d1f40185d1337ad46f35763824d158058499814f032e07984207f6b89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tienof Tien, Shevchenko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6939…1d82backed Shevchenko | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Shevchenko | 18c | 4,942$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.83 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Shevchenko | 11c | 4,620$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.76 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Shevchenko | 1c | 3,906$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Shevchenko | 14c | 2,261$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.83 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Shevchenko | 19c | 1,922$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.83 | 1,161 | 37.6%437 W · 724 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Shevchenko | 18c | 1,760$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.82 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Shevchenko | 15c | 1,572$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.17 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tien | 80c | 1,399$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.87 | 2,444 | 51.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Shevchenko | 8c | 1,199$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.35 | 656 | 47.6%312 W · 344 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Shevchenko | 6c | 1,167$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e78…52b5backed Shevchenko | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Shevchenko | 18c | 999.95$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Shevchenko | 11c | 877.43$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.39 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Tien | 73c | 788.21$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.12 | 1,161 | 44.3%514 W · 647 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Tien | 79c | 628.98$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.98 | 369 | 68%251 W · 118 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Shevchenko | 5c | 618.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Shevchenko | 10c | 591.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Shevchenko | 18c | 528.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Shevchenko | 20c | 501.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Shevchenko | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Shevchenko | 15c | 499.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fc…3e7fbacked Tien | 74c | 472.97$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.97 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Shevchenko | 28c | 355.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Shevchenko | 17c | 314$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d4…2c19backed Shevchenko | 13c | 311$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfa…a8debacked Shevchenko | 29c | 206.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 359 | 51.3%184 W · 175 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Shevchenko | 15c | 153.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Shevchenko | 26c | 122$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Shevchenko | 18c | 119.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 262 | 44.7%117 W · 145 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…dcd8backed Tien | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Shevchenko | 19c | 61.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…5670backed Shevchenko | 27c | 56.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd1…3380backed Shevchenko | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Shevchenko | 29c | 38.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Learner Tien vs Alexander Shevchenkothis page
- Tien vs. Shevchenko: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Tien vs. Shevchenko: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.