World Politics · resolved market
Starmer out as UK prime minister in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a2ae5fe3795afdd425c93105915391ca4a3778e6940970900524ea0166dfab0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,268,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,271,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,268,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2d5…2884backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +222.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 8,973$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.02 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed Yes | 1c | 7,390$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 0c | 6,479$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes | 10c | 5,966$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd049…5de7backed Yes | 5c | 3,867$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c91…851fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,657$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,293$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…9f23backed Yes | 5c | 2,905$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd49…3e77backed Yes | 9c | 2,137$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3249…5b75backed Yes | 5c | 2,128$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed Yes | 1c | 1,651$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,585$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,517$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…96ffbacked Yes | 6c | 1,433$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 1c | 999.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 5c | 943.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 721$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 10c | 559.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7426…5252backed Yes | 5c | 535.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…2e45backed Yes | 9c | 523.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf995…df86backed Yes | 8c | 500.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 424.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…c77fbacked Yes | 4c | 416.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…8db9backed Yes | 5c | 400.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…b8f5backed Yes | 5c | 398.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe719…8a4ebacked Yes | 6c | 308.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…dcd8backed Yes | 5c | 275$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x003f…febcbacked Yes | 6c | 250.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…1d13backed No | 71c | 200$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…eb38backed Yes | 25c | 122.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b9…abadbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 64c | 20.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.