TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Paradex launch a token on March 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,581,283

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,581,283 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 272 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc23e…1461backed No1c249,451$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.27933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-45.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x240c…bd0dbacked No0c190,782$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+78.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c50…8100backed No0c173,006$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.011414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e15…b101backed No3c162,245$4,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,157.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e4a…1078backed No0c111,566$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.57119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-71.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21b6…83d8backed No0c111,200$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.28017.5%14 W · 66 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc76…7842backed No2c108,836$2,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,517.455135.3%18 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x71ed…258cbacked No0c90,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab1c…35a7backed No1c86,707$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.773823.7%9 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8cb…1f21backed No3c83,753$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,249.652035%7 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66e7…24c2backed No0c53,904$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-70.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe963…1856backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf239…3627backed No0c49,325$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.655529.1%16 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb157…f7cebacked No0c40,330$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked No0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7daf…581bbacked No0c33,860$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x894d…cdb0backed No0c31,980$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc723…7778backed No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19ec…d662backed No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea5…e9afbacked No0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+32.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e77…6762backed No0c29,750$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f4b…4a0ebacked No0c27,610$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed No0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ac7…5981backed No0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa55b…e0debacked No2c24,769$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.041915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No70c24,621$17,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,153.8111833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc03c…9188backed No0c24,240$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaed2…bbffbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8888…0b39backed No45c18,917$8,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,530.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce71…d5f6backed No0c18,911$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.321050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x691c…e0aabacked No2c17,488$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.493125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8601…eca3backed No0c16,980$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d6…ed00backed No0c14,230$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed No6c11,560$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.62832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-33.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64af…a2debacked Yes69c11,412$7,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,551.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e5…e2f4backed No2c10,990$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ce9…ef59backed No0c10,780$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27ee…918dbacked No0c10,398$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb006…bddcbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ab9…361dbacked No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1494…9887backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b23…4528backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104660.9%28 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+53.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9de1…160ebacked No4c8,777$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.733271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+21.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaa66…5493backed No1c8,733$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.01520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-54.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79d4…6d24backed Yes64c6,801$4,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,416.22958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No2c6,417$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.46932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf29e…841dbacked No1c6,122$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.373225%8 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22b5…bdcabacked Yes70c6,120$4,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,851.94580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+355.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2f2…5895backed No2c5,467$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3fb…0eacbacked No2c5,404$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6539…f6cdbacked No1c5,300$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419920.2%20 W · 79 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8803…eb1dbacked Yes76c5,299$4,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.26450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No1c5,290$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.762377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13ba…be9fbacked No24c5,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.531450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed Yes60c4,700$2,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,897.3219543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa825…797abacked Yes50c4,584$2,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,292.97650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9e60…f42cbacked No0c4,278$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe961…8dcabacked No0c4,157$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No50c4,000$2,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0121513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-75.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ffc…5d01backed No25c3,970$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…03c5backed Yes68c3,769$2,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,220.867657.9%44 W · 32 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb717…d819backed No1c3,637$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.572714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes78c3,301$2,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.51520%3 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-68.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes35c3,241$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,098.5535712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc392…511bbacked No2c3,115$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.681225%3 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-49.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed Yes78c3,101$2,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes66c3,012$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.496940.6%28 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed Yes43c3,011$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+131.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No2c2,883$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.913283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8716…c958backed No31c2,783$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.14944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-41.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b1…cbdfbacked Yes52c2,610$1,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,264.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca03…91b8backed No6c2,487$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.251650%8 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c2,446$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.192061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e37…cccbbacked No28c2,347$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.2510143.6%44 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No13c2,239$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.84156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…a3d6backed No28c2,211$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.674257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ba…3b53backed No1c2,157$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc732…0a00backed No4c2,125$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes31c2,000$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3753256.3%18 W · 14 L+6.0wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+565.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No10c1,999$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.483716.2%6 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-50.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5a…d56ebacked No48c1,893$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.395623.2%13 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc644…23f3backed Yes75c1,800$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd65e…bc0cbacked No3c1,751$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3adf…2380backed No24c1,556$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaec…cf45backed No33c1,547$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.08520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa853…58a9backed No6c1,518$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+159.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c5a…61b1backed Yes70c1,508$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No2c1,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-80.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xeedb…59e5backed No14c1,483$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.02728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ea0…b56abacked No2c1,416$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.84425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-65.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes60c1,414$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.2210320.4%21 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aca…036bbacked No14c1,412$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.881030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-51%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e27…9890backed No67c1,392$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.733531.4%11 W · 24 L-5.5wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-49.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x24dd…9948backed Yes78c1,331$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb2b…1921backed Yes38c1,318$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.725058%29 W · 21 L+7.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+43.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes49c1,280$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.615623.2%13 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a81…c57fbacked No4c1,214$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ffc…d342backed No3c1,200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.33per pick44cpaid-78.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9b4f…ce1fbacked No18c1,123$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.7750%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcc1…50dbbacked No1c1,121$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.556639.4%26 W · 40 L+0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.