TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$498,520
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$513,130

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $498,520 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 475 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9ab4…d3dabacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked No56c17,289$9,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,571.433537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6002…3407backed Yes60c15,431$9,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,258.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0073…d7d5backed No40c15,431$6,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,258.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked No67c11,828$7,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,913.971172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x95fa…bf65backed Yes59c11,430$6,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,7501833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes52c10,845$5,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,598.855949.2%29 W · 30 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes56c10,758$6,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,047.25650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed No37c10,014$3,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,308.9310541%43 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed No39c9,646$3,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8841464.3%9 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.29per pick36cpaid+76.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfb64…5e23backed No58c8,927$5,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,749.155427.8%15 W · 39 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e0b…9e5cbacked No53c8,637$4,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,087.0313934.5%48 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed No59c8,608$5,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,569.418854.5%48 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes43c8,507$3,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,646.2524544.9%110 W · 135 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes45c8,314$3,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,728.62941.4%12 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Yes60c6,845$4,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,119.0575046.8%351 W · 399 L+0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed Yes58c6,572$3,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,821.49933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3646…f71bbacked Yes44c6,330$2,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,785.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes48c5,588$2,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,682.2623731.6%75 W · 162 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No58c5,301$3,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,223.727,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43bf…713cbacked Yes36c5,249$1,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,903.421040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0805…31c0backed No52c4,926$2,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,378.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes35c4,908$1,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,721.7211230.4%34 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3daf…e888backed No45c4,575$2,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,496.662218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-61.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes42c4,213$1,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.461010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-69.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked No44c4,193$1,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,341.228241.5%34 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Yes45c4,069$1,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,826.38728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Yes59c4,000$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,360.0423126%60 W · 171 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef6…8df1backed Yes57c3,948$2,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,266.53825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x189c…fea3backed No41c3,810$1,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,247.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes47c3,705$1,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,742.9752750.3%265 W · 262 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6af9…1d6ebacked Yes54c3,607$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,950650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Yes35c3,588$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.212123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked No64c3,527$2,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.891,15144.4%511 W · 640 L+1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fe1…e6d3backed Yes60c3,517$2,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,118.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0baf…390abacked Yes30c3,296$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9832733.3%9 W · 18 L-4.9wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-42.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Yes43c3,005$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.1557939.7%230 W · 349 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No54c2,875$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.932031.3%100 W · 220 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed No77c2,608$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.8911242.9%48 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9567…4eb2backed Yes63c2,581$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,625.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked Yes69c2,480$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70013260.6%80 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a57…14a1backed Yes61c2,442$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+91.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a61…1787backed Yes56c2,401$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,345.592231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked Yes37c2,400$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.647057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes43c2,399$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.792920.7%6 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed Yes44c2,353$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.842020%4 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No60c2,330$1,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.4922623.9%54 W · 172 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9106…afcbbacked No42c2,310$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.544434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-26.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c58…7aebbacked No52c2,308$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,107.692352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x275f…39d9backed Yes54c2,261$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc829…cad3backed Yes61c2,246$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36311945.4%54 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebf8…92b8backed No65c2,231$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5acd…c079backed Yes37c2,200$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes57c2,195$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.941931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Yes60c2,168$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.839742.3%41 W · 56 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f23…1832backed Yes56c2,143$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0122…d4a9backed Yes43c2,000$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd752…85d4backed Yes38c1,800$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69226833.6%90 W · 178 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes41c1,769$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.578226.8%22 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a47…5533backed Yes42c1,673$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.551752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Yes63c1,588$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.55728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes47c1,521$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.73953.8%21 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked No39c1,500$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddec…0015backed No40c1,500$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.835040%20 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82bb…3105backed Yes55c1,455$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf22a…bbf0backed Yes60c1,398$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-54.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed Yes61c1,328$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.953441.2%14 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfeb7…489dbacked Yes50c1,318$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.84714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes59c1,310$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.247744.2%34 W · 43 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f78…efa9backed No41c1,260$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed No40c1,250$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75011045.5%50 W · 60 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe81e…3640backed Yes61c1,236$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.5912944.2%57 W · 72 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No52c1,202$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.98425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-51.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9e5…a4b6backed Yes5c1,185$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No58c1,141$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.03450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No58c1,092$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.492770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb740…2ec1backed Yes43c1,020$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43935157%200 W · 151 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9fc…aa72backed Yes55c1,007$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.7620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x937a…dbc8backed Yes40c1,006$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes61c1,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6102030%6 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62ff…5058backed Yes56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5601040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f5c…a5debacked Yes19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190450%2 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+292.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed No63c999.97$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.991060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dba…0c23backed Yes55c990.08$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3435…1913backed Yes60c980$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdfe…82d3backed Yes60c979.07$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.4420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9264…ec96backed Yes54c926.15$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.12650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed Yes56c908.25$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.97714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b4c…d191backed Yes44c887.24$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3746…f6aabacked Yes55c887.16$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba72…143bbacked Yes58c885.6$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.53666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+64.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked No47c857.98$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.9863247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf4e…51a7backed No54c826$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No46c823.95$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.31540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x698e…25eabacked Yes53c802.74$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.43633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-44.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1400…ffd6backed No60c801.48$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.78837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdc0…dcd8backed No43c799.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4602846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…043ebacked Yes41c787.95$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.05616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-47%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes53c757.25$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.3888455%486 W · 398 L+37.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked Yes25c746.74$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.131330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.