Tennis · resolved market

Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x507a3030ce939228914691609990b30bee9a71ccbb381ea7af677b0abc3a1e8d

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $36,261
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $32,675

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,261 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7616…69eebacked Yes	9c	2,500$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.65	70	57.1%40 W · 30 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ddf…13a9backed Yes	9c	1,926$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.04	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfade…68cfbacked Yes	11c	1,371$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.29	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	6c	1,103$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.99	227	23.8%54 W · 173 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29cd…cbc5backed Yes	8c	1,024$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.77	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+77.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed Yes	9c	982.99$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.5	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e2…cb99backed Yes	7c	810$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.7	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb7…489dbacked Yes	11c	659$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.39	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes	11c	622$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.64	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	+6.4wins	+0.11per pick	38cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x094d…59f3backed Yes	8c	609.84$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	49	38.8%19 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0805…31c0backed Yes	8c	600$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes	4c	578.38$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.03	444	23.9%106 W · 338 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0483…483bbacked Yes	7c	544.2$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.09	69	55.1%38 W · 31 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes	7c	514.51$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.02	237	31.6%75 W · 162 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26dc…95c4backed Yes	8c	462.91$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.35	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	+4.1wins	+0.14per pick	32cpaid	+62.2%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	9c	377$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.51	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-4.2wins	-0.13per pick	37cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb06…4ababacked Yes	10c	340$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	287	54%155 W · 132 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdac…8dc5backed Yes	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes	8c	299.98$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	527	50.3%265 W · 262 L	-6.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…483abacked Yes	9c	233.33$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	8c	230.18$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.49	82	8.5%7 W · 75 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e4a…7045backed Yes	9c	222.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf384…e357backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd660…6cd0backed Yes	8c	220$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x13f8…3970backed Yes	13c	194.62$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	+55.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Yes	9c	191$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.19	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09d3…4befbacked Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94f1…261fbacked Yes	9c	166.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	243	57.6%140 W · 103 L	+9.8wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed Yes	7c	160$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-3.0wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x724d…8deabacked Yes	10c	107.34$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.43	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c5…e717backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-3.7wins	-0.16per pick	33cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f9e…fddebacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event