Tennis · resolved market

Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99ee0acd265a9c9d996a219b8726b6eee3f1f309dd14b719baa37229543dd0d7

Rebuilt 40 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 28, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $99,907
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $101,938

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,907 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x40f8…327dbacked Yes	12c	11,971$1,436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,436.47	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf604…36b3backed Yes	6c	9,546$592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$591.81	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Yes	13c	7,530$1,016 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,015.56	174	45.4%79 W · 95 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Yes	13c	5,000$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$629.98	231	26%60 W · 171 L	-7.8wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	4,098$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.85	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43bf…713cbacked Yes	15c	3,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes	12c	1,999$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.66	527	50.3%265 W · 262 L	-6.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes	15c	1,627$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.56	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	+6.4wins	+0.11per pick	38cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd30b…1b50backed Yes	12c	1,618$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	42	31%13 W · 29 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0baf…390abacked Yes	16c	1,439$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.85	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-4.9wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4f91…40adbacked Yes	2c	1,296$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.89	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked Yes	13c	1,154$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.52	220	39.1%86 W · 134 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5804…dc41backed Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	65	53.8%35 W · 30 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef6…8df1backed Yes	14c	941.59$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.11	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Yes	13c	842.41$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.51	1,161	44.3%514 W · 647 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfed7…043ebacked Yes	9c	840$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.6	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-47%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	731$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.85	1,245	33.9%422 W · 823 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d44…11d5backed Yes	15c	665.52$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfeb7…489dbacked Yes	15c	659$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.85	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes	14c	606.67$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba4c…9dc3backed Yes	10c	600$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-5.2wins	-0.21per pick	49cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x2352…4c5abacked Yes	13c	563.24$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.4	43	25.6%11 W · 32 L	-3.0wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes	11c	514$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.19	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-3.0wins	-0.30per pick	40cpaid	-87.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4cef…eb15backed Yes	15c	511.4$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-2.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Yes	14c	500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	61	49.2%30 W · 31 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1906…b52dbacked Yes	14c	495$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes	16c	470.62$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.15	321	31.2%100 W · 221 L	-10.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bc4…4f77backed Yes	15c	425$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7063…3afebacked Yes	16c	412.5$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+85.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes	13c	400$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…1c65backed Yes	15c	400$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	106	48.1%51 W · 55 L	-5.3wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf397…e1dabacked Yes	13c	392.58$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.96	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe28f…be21backed Yes	14c	361.3$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Yes	12c	319$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.28	257	22.2%57 W · 200 L	-12.3wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	310.35$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.84	459	9.6%44 W · 415 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b4…3111backed Yes	13c	300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	52	50%26 W · 26 L	+3.6wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Yes	13c	295.89$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.47	75	33.3%25 W · 50 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c5f…3d60backed Yes	13c	295.85$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed Yes	14c	295$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.3	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb06…4ababacked Yes	16c	293.75$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	287	54%155 W · 132 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1902…ffc4backed Yes	14c	292.52$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes	15c	274.94$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.27	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	33cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a22…6de6backed Yes	11c	260.65$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.48	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	12c	246.78$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.62	82	8.5%7 W · 75 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1738…7ca1backed Yes	8c	245.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.65	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked Yes	15c	239.21$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.3	70	57.1%40 W · 30 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6633…dcfebacked Yes	15c	235.67$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.35	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Yes	15c	228.47$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.27	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+108.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bb7…f680backed Yes	13c	214.29$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9419…a40fbacked Yes	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x043d…e84fbacked Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes	13c	199.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.05	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5acd…c079backed Yes	11c	199$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97b7…ece2backed Yes	14c	178.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+2.0wins	+0.23per pick	22cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3685…ca34backed Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	39cpaid	+44.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5383…e30fbacked Yes	13c	155.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	25cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x737d…1f6bbacked Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	30	20%6 W · 24 L	-4.2wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x429b…e9debacked Yes	13c	150.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.57	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8080…0212backed Yes	16c	150$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a40…0703backed Yes	19c	150$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4385…5a83backed Yes	16c	150$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdedb…1053backed Yes	14c	150$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.17	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x956d…f8c7backed Yes	18c	150$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.3	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.21per pick	41cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde63…28ffbacked Yes	18c	150$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.62	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc18f…9052backed Yes	17c	150$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e4f…a242backed Yes	17c	150$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4872…470fbacked Yes	8c	150$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeaa…f758backed Yes	15c	150$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.7	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc527…21dbbacked Yes	16c	150$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-40%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…f67cbacked Yes	16c	150$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x686c…6bfdbacked Yes	17c	150$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2e2…cb99backed Yes	12c	147$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cea…8a8ebacked Yes	14c	137.34$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.33	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e7…dcdfbacked Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48df…e4c9backed Yes	17c	120$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	177	46.9%83 W · 94 L	+8.2wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed49…2511backed Yes	11c	115$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.65	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d53…7bc0backed Yes	14c	112.96$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.81	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5b…e8dfbacked Yes	18c	111.47$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-41%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc677…677abacked Yes	14c	105$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x818e…b787backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb53…c50bbacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0806…06d2backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2562…af8fbacked Yes	12c	99.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	13c	97.7$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-2.5wins	-0.12per pick	36cpaid	-44%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x49c2…7bedbacked Yes	11c	96.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes	13c	96.44$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.54	237	31.6%75 W · 162 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdb5…1434backed Yes	13c	83.77$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x504c…824fbacked Yes	13c	80$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb094…bf7fbacked Yes	16c	62.94$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	51	27.5%14 W · 37 L	+4.8wins	+0.09per pick	18cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event