Stocks · resolved market

Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 end of January?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97fdd986031e7362fa0592d036995b388309f4c1e8dd37afeccf1c221d661c2a

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 30, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $62,905
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $61,627

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,905 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Stocks
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x969f…4d55backed Yes	61c	8,832$5,352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,480.64	1,111	43.7%486 W · 625 L	+25.8wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No	32c	2,405$758 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$758.14	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-57%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No	51c	2,337$1,201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200.73	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-3.1wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xca28…2f7cbacked No	34c	2,171$742 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$741.95	34	23.5%8 W · 26 L	-3.7wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa78…f40bbacked Yes	67c	1,998$1,347 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$650.97	137	51.1%70 W · 67 L	+7.4wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed No	43c	1,679$729 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$729.15	56	39.3%22 W · 34 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-34%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No	37c	1,673$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$619.61	602	29.9%180 W · 422 L	-32.6wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-35%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfed7…043ebacked No	7c	1,489$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.34	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	27cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x964e…99bbbacked No	27c	1,276$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.8	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-63.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No	25c	1,144$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.32	990	38%376 W · 614 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked No	42c	1,131$474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.22	49	34.7%17 W · 32 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd80a…d20ebacked No	29c	1,119$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.65	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-2.7wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed No	42c	1,006$427 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.96	93	24.7%23 W · 70 L	-9.0wins	-0.10per pick	34cpaid	-41%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbd6c…a568backed No	24c	824.42$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.86	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	+4.5wins	+0.11per pick	34cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No	19c	822.02$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.34	812	40.3%327 W · 485 L	+37.1wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa62f…68e7backed No	5c	800$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes	48c	798.3$387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$411.25	63	61.9%39 W · 24 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No	39c	663.91$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.92	90	26.7%24 W · 66 L	-7.0wins	-0.08per pick	34cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes	79c	536.54$424 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.96	565	48.7%275 W · 290 L	+6.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No	42c	456$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.91	159	47.8%76 W · 83 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed No	16c	435.03$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.31	482	34%164 W · 318 L	+16.4wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7462…7734backed Yes	72c	419.84$304 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.82	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd13…7079backed No	25c	356.32$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.66	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No	39c	327.45$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.38	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	21c	288.62$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.73	1,444	8.8%127 W · 1,317 L	-53.5wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked No	36c	280$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	123	60.2%74 W · 49 L	+8.7wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72a8…c016backed Yes	64c	268.28$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.26	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	+3.8wins	+0.16per pick	53cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x02df…b85abacked No	40c	248.76$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	43cpaid	+91.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked No	36c	246.57$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.83	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	34c	239.88$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.38	863	38.1%329 W · 534 L	-43.0wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes	73c	219$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.11	56	28.6%16 W · 40 L	-3.9wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9f1…137cbacked Yes	47c	212.77$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.77	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No	42c	204.76$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	221	29%64 W · 157 L	-14.1wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-22%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes	71c	200$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41fd…4bf8backed No	42c	190.64$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.99	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.12per pick	39cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebb2…c640backed Yes	77c	185.09$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.63	47	38.3%18 W · 29 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes	57c	178.73$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.01	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked No	19c	175.5$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.16	59	37.3%22 W · 37 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	55c	162.96$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.76	170	49.4%84 W · 86 L	+4.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked No	30c	150.62$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.99	194	19.1%37 W · 157 L	-11.1wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-49%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Yes	60c	137.19$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.84	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed No	43c	116.13$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.9	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-3.9wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa0f6…492dbacked No	18c	111.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	66c	106.94$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.36	94	31.9%30 W · 64 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a0d…1a09backed Yes	47c	106.38$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.38	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc39d…4891backed No	13c	105.8$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.03	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-2.7wins	-0.11per pick	14cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes	73c	100$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x764a…9747backed Yes	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.11per pick	64cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4413…ba5abacked No	44c	98.32$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No	30c	88.24$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.6	108	27.8%30 W · 78 L	-7.6wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No	18c	86.8$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.55	111	7.2%8 W · 103 L	-6.1wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-58.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	44c	80.57$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.76	164	18.9%31 W · 133 L	-16.7wins	-0.10per pick	29cpaid	-45%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No	18c	78.5$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.13	151	31.1%47 W · 104 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-44%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3fb…4a87backed No	43c	77.1$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.25	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No	17c	75.22$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.79	416	8.7%36 W · 380 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed No	28c	72$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.34	232	45.3%105 W · 127 L	+15.9wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8090…4fbdbacked Yes	47c	70.2$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.2	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20a3…29dbbacked No	30c	70$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	-3.8wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f61…8e4fbacked No	46c	69$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.74	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed No	32c	61.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.07	104	27.9%29 W · 75 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	27c	60$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	273	38.1%104 W · 169 L	-19.6wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf944…c249backed No	18c	59.41$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.69	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	13cpaid	+72.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffe2…c78ebacked No	33c	58$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.12	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.16per pick	18cpaid	+308.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes	64c	57$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.67	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.18per pick	41cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8543…049fbacked No	27c	55.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No	32c	54$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef00…1e50backed No	32c	54$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes	51c	52.77$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.85	89	43.8%39 W · 50 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9039…d819backed Yes	58c	51.72$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.72	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	44cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b99…3a8cbacked No	24c	51$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4c1…ac54backed Yes	72c	51$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.28	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.54per pick	47cpaid	+207.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3e8…fe94backed Yes	65c	50$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.5	48	45.8%22 W · 26 L	+7.6wins	+0.16per pick	30cpaid	+51.1%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x6e2c…c9c9backed Yes	71c	50$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.5	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdc0…dcd8backed No	39c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…02adbacked No	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	54c	40.71$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.58	162	48.1%78 W · 84 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	0%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	43c	40.2$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.43	274	29.2%80 W · 194 L	-16.6wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cf2…2de4backed Yes	58c	34.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.48	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.42per pick	58cpaid	+72.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes	66c	30.98$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.53	53	35.8%19 W · 34 L	-4.7wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 end of January?this page
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 end of January?Yes won
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 end of January?Yes won
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $220 end of January?Yes won
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of January?No won
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 end of January?No won
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 end of January?No won
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 end of January?No won
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $280 end of January?No won
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $290 end of January?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 end of January?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event