Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc0a4914424b82c1490169f3bf3f0494a9f113d768558daa0dc3d847d8fb2bf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 56c | 10,065$5,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,437.44 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…463dbacked Yes | 58c | 9,471$5,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,525.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 78c | 5,888$4,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,315.26 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 77c | 3,466$2,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,660.84 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 39c | 2,931$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,778.8 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked No | 24c | 1,927$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.88 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 28c | 1,569$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.17 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 55c | 1,567$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.56 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 78c | 1,258$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.37 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes | 35c | 1,193$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.46 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 48c | 833.62$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.93 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 49c | 734.41$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.79 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 51c | 729$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.7 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 53c | 680$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.7 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1055…22e5backed No | 38c | 658.14$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…c2d1backed Yes | 68c | 559.72$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…eb64backed No | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 55c | 485.9$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.18 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 42c | 470$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed Yes | 33c | 407.94$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.09 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 63c | 374.5$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.04 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 53c | 361.67$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.31 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…4fbdbacked Yes | 42c | 305.22$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 287.08$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.75 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 41c | 256$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.79 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9039…d819backed Yes | 33c | 253.53$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb35…58e3backed Yes | 46c | 250$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa854…3856backed No | 54c | 240$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 202.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 54c | 192.4$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc5…2015backed No | 32c | 189.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked No | 56c | 175$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.65 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 41c | 156.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked No | 53c | 130$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 62c | 121.8$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 48c | 117$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 56c | 112.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 27c | 110$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…36a1backed No | 46c | 108.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 63c | 102.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 48c | 101.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…9747backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…5d76backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c0…ef89backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x964e…99bbbacked No | 69c | 97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 77c | 96.81$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41fd…4bf8backed Yes | 53c | 95.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 45c | 88.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd761…cd8fbacked Yes | 49c | 86.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 45c | 83.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ed…6c26backed Yes | 72c | 81.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 35c | 80.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 70c | 79.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 76.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 79c | 74.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae2…41e5backed Yes | 69c | 72.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 32c | 68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 38c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 67c | 61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02af…4ee1backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 73c | 51.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 45c | 50.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed No | 68c | 49.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 54c | 47.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f61…8e4fbacked Yes | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc28e…e067backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…049fbacked Yes | 46c | 39.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…f072backed No | 68c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd151…0a8abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…b461backed Yes | 40c | 29.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f3…5294backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…9434backed Yes | 76c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84e6…eb7fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…fd70backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of January?this page
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 end of January?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 end of January?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $220 end of January?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 end of January?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 end of January?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 end of January?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 end of January?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $280 end of January?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $290 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.