Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d366be19a1982952bbe83d8cd1e8af9dc28e4852b66eb3cfae1baaf1711c6a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes | 20c | 4,682$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.77 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 8c | 4,245$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.64 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 19c | 2,411$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.12 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 74c | 2,102$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.5 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 24c | 1,844$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.54 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 23c | 1,358$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.96 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,351$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 77c | 803.94$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.37 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194a…7005backed Yes | 24c | 773.55$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes | 11c | 750$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 75c | 630$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.1 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…5dbdbacked Yes | 27c | 606.37$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.19 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 73c | 562.11$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.97 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa62f…68e7backed Yes | 19c | 530$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 12c | 499.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +159.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 28c | 349.96$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1055…22e5backed No | 78c | 320.51$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 29c | 300.32$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed Yes | 19c | 295.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 242.97$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 196.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc83e…7e3fbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d82…3754backed No | 59c | 145$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 22c | 127.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 12c | 124.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 17c | 112$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c70…2cd7backed Yes | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed Yes | 15c | 101.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…b958backed Yes | 22c | 99.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…7079backed No | 74c | 99.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 21c | 99.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f4…760fbacked Yes | 39c | 98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 14c | 95.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 87.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…b3d5backed Yes | 58c | 86.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 85.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…4fbdbacked Yes | 20c | 80.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f3…5294backed Yes | 31c | 80.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 76c | 70.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 25c | 69.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…fe94backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 71c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 76c | 31.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…c9c9backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc04…bdd7backed No | 69c | 22.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…8724backed No | 69c | 20.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 end of January?this page
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 end of January?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 end of January?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $220 end of January?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 end of January?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of January?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 end of January?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 end of January?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $280 end of January?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $290 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.