Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $220 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78b0ab69b8b3992eaf2b5d6bb2c3e1455e8d58e59cb0c9c4a7ff63c81a020570
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x539d…0213backed No | 22c | 2,118$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 73c | 1,653$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.51 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8622…cdc9backed No | 4c | 1,300$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 10c | 1,264$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.18 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 13c | 1,238$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.08 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5a…e3e4backed Yes | 78c | 800$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1588…a68bbacked No | 9c | 735$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 14c | 703.59$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 14c | 575.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked No | 4c | 567$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 408$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 12c | 396.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked No | 9c | 363$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 9c | 350.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed No | 5c | 326.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 12c | 310$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 219.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41fd…4bf8backed No | 5c | 217.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 217.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 11c | 199.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed No | 15c | 196.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 10c | 194.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked No | 10c | 170$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 15c | 163.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 18c | 160$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…6895backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…9747backed Yes | 75c | 152.23$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 146$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 14c | 91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…bfc0backed No | 19c | 54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 79c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $220 end of January?this page
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 end of January?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 end of January?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 end of January?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of January?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 end of January?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 end of January?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 end of January?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $280 end of January?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $290 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.