Commodities · resolved market
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fbeca90a39253081b032a9990da1cb5b25573d4e213327b5b0f0c222b05be6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Goldof Gold, ETH
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,676,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,867,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,676,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,594 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Gold | 50c | 84,798$42,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,244.78 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed ETH | 40c | 67,796$26,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,893.61 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf915…8720backed ETH | 30c | 32,963$9,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,924.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed ETH | 19c | 27,833$5,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,358.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd807…c9e7backed ETH | 5c | 27,344$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac7…e0efbacked ETH | 3c | 26,101$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Gold | 57c | 24,515$14,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,470.14 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -10.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -55%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed ETH | 12c | 22,422$2,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,797.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed ETH | 1c | 21,753$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.99 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcb…68eebacked Gold | 59c | 20,901$12,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,627.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d4…ae10backed ETH | 51c | 20,480$10,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,369 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…5cc1backed ETH | 20c | 20,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,999.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3d…12e7backed Gold | 41c | 19,436$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,436.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Gold | 31c | 18,279$5,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,555.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73bb…9473backed Gold | 75c | 17,762$13,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,384.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +227.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf25…3b7fbacked ETH | 13c | 16,651$2,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,125.19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…b782backed ETH | 2c | 16,104$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x665b…73babacked Gold | 69c | 15,962$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,961.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d2…9c2fbacked Gold | 69c | 15,555$10,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,776.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6182…788ebacked ETH | 64c | 15,500$9,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,919.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8311…79f9backed ETH | 2c | 15,266$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked ETH | 38c | 14,990$5,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,765.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…f63abacked Gold | 73c | 13,642$9,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,657.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59f9…3739backed Gold | 69c | 11,240$7,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,472.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…f5dcbacked ETH | 0c | 11,239$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc793…1727backed ETH | 65c | 10,901$7,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,059.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…0793backed ETH | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda2…6386backed Gold | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,699.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f1…6712backed Gold | 72c | 9,560$6,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,710 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Gold | 60c | 7,913$4,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,158.26 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…50aebacked Gold | 73c | 7,600$5,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,052 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…fd14backed Gold | 69c | 7,209$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,209.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x894f…ed86backed ETH | 2c | 7,116$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked ETH | 39c | 7,042$2,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,758.5 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2737…8610backed Gold | 35c | 6,835$2,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,423.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +183.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…640bbacked Gold | 72c | 6,562$4,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x499e…8a85backed Gold | 72c | 6,489$4,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…a80cbacked Gold | 65c | 6,489$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,288.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d4…6e9bbacked ETH | 1c | 6,098$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…e71dbacked ETH | 68c | 6,043$4,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,098.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x277e…7d32backed Gold | 71c | 6,000$4,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740.04 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9769…7eccbacked ETH | 24c | 5,946$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f87…f277backed Gold | 58c | 5,879$3,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,454.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked Gold | 72c | 5,832$4,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed ETH | 21c | 5,686$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.66 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89b…f512backed Gold | 62c | 5,616$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda95…e997backed ETH | 45c | 5,565$2,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,519.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…3b7dbacked Gold | 72c | 5,550$3,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked ETH | 1c | 5,482$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed ETH | 53c | 5,448$2,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,871.1 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6594…9a61backed ETH | 36c | 5,220$1,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,857.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x422e…9b38backed ETH | 13c | 5,067$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3f…86aebacked Gold | 69c | 5,033$3,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f9…7889backed Gold | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed ETH | 52c | 4,990$2,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,609.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed ETH | 3c | 4,942$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.08 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d1…873ebacked ETH | 1c | 4,935$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed ETH | 4c | 4,637$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.56 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…3f46backed ETH | 0c | 4,530$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked ETH | 43c | 4,511$1,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed Gold | 72c | 4,507$3,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe319…6ea0backed ETH | 45c | 4,447$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…68dbbacked Gold | 58c | 4,302$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,801.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…f291backed ETH | 41c | 4,193$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…1b61backed ETH | 21c | 4,190$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +66%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2450…8108backed Gold | 65c | 4,153$2,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked Gold | 31c | 4,148$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,882.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c2…9970backed ETH | 0c | 4,112$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a4…debabacked ETH | 18c | 4,070$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…e43fbacked ETH | 31c | 4,012$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…e578backed Gold | 63c | 4,000$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…a3ddbacked ETH | 25c | 3,937$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754e…028fbacked ETH | 48c | 3,934$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,893.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf90b…cb6cbacked Gold | 66c | 3,886$2,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e3…93f2backed ETH | 61c | 3,869$2,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,354 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc0…441dbacked ETH | 3c | 3,680$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked ETH | 1c | 3,599$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…a76abacked ETH | 62c | 3,523$2,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,198.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed ETH | 47c | 3,519$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked ETH | 6c | 3,512$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…28bdbacked ETH | 4c | 3,500$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 27cpaid | +366.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…5dbdbacked ETH | 69c | 3,273$2,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,254.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1730…0885backed ETH | 62c | 3,226$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed ETH | 11c | 3,200$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d13…f01ebacked Gold | 55c | 3,095$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x294d…b362backed Gold | 80c | 3,032$2,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.76 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +90%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…6236backed Gold | 35c | 2,998$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,948.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa914…3b56backed ETH | 69c | 2,892$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fd…c6bbbacked Gold | 74c | 2,831$2,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…54d4backed ETH | 71c | 2,829$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…3773backed Gold | 62c | 2,787$1,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…3da2backed Gold | 48c | 2,683$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,397.95 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…9eeabacked ETH | 1c | 2,643$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Gold | 40c | 2,604$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab45…c4f5backed Gold | 46c | 2,582$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.87 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed ETH | 24c | 2,580$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.66 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee92…eaa4backed Gold | 62c | 2,561$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed ETH | 38c | 2,531$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.97 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed ETH | 3c | 2,512$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Gold | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.