Chess · resolved market
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad6b1f1914153cf918139ddc9fe56d644f6bd6370c58c3353b8475c927994b73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 17c | 3,969$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed Yes | 14c | 2,498$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…cdaabacked Yes | 9c | 1,723$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 18c | 1,478$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 10c | 1,300$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.97 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…c040backed Yes | 16c | 570$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6723backed Yes | 18c | 552.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 14c | 509.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Yes | 17c | 340.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 303.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 7c | 300.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes | 9c | 270.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc04…196dbacked Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…9057backed Yes | 22c | 218.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48fe…62a1backed Yes | 20c | 203.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 17c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…fd85backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 190.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 79c | 169.24$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…6088backed Yes | 16c | 166.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…515dbacked Yes | 10c | 153$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 15c | 121.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…7473backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…044dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…dcd8backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754f…4e38backed Yes | 20c | 93.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafbf…e054backed Yes | 16c | 71.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…0b8fbacked Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4a…1f4cbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?this page
- Will Denis Lazavik win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?No won
- Will Vladislav Artemiev win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?No won
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?No won
- Will Ding Liren win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?No won
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?No won
- Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?Yes won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?No won
- Will Vladimir Fedoseev win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?No won
- Will Wei Yi win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.