TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,059
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,797

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,059 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes2c3,052$50 inLost-$50.423531.4%11 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-27.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x48fe…62a1backed Yes5c3,012$136 inLost-$135.630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf017…1823backed Yes4c2,500$100 inLost-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes3c1,610$47 inLost-$46.546820.6%14 W · 54 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-60.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes10c1,326$128 inLost-$127.7147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-86.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x754f…4e38backed Yes9c1,067$100 inLost-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes4c1,040$41 inLost-$40.8160%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0770…184bbacked Yes10c1,016$100 inLost-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+78.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c6…7961backed Yes9c1,000$91 inLost-$91110%0 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c979.45$29 inLost-$28.71757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-42.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x07a4…fd85backed Yes4c840.57$30 inLost-$30.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-55.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ca7…31a2backed Yes10c496.04$50 inLost-$501833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+5,506%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x284c…57e0backed Yes2c493.88$11 inLost-$10.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes5c458.23$23 inLost-$22.932313%3 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7275…0e2dbacked Yes9c435.26$40 inLost-$39.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0912…5739backed Yes10c396.04$40 inLost-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9e8…171ebacked Yes9c200$17 inLost-$17.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c191.64$11 inLost-$11.1811011.8%13 W · 97 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcca…aebabacked Yes8c188.26$15 inLost-$15.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7668…398fbacked Yes9c181$17 inLost-$16.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5336…aba1backed Yes9c166$14 inLost-$14.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x246f…1c93backed Yes9c118$11 inLost-$10.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.