TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$175,577
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$189,442

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,577 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8afe…73bbbacked No39c28,876$11,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,261.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef9…65c9backed Yes61c28,876$17,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,261.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb71e…0686backed No45c26,617$11,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,977.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebfe…2a06backed Yes55c26,617$14,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,977.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes54c4,244$2,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,952.746137.7%23 W · 38 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes70c3,841$2,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.763330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf017…1823backed No45c3,796$1,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,726.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5999…ae94backed Yes73c1,873$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked No12c1,783$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.71147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-86.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x89c6…7961backed No10c1,298$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.82110%0 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No11c1,277$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.662835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-45.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x288a…4275backed Yes78c1,260$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.4944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x705f…3fcfbacked Yes57c1,150$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec5…20d8backed Yes55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked No9c999.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+175.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed Yes54c927.75$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c81…919dbacked Yes55c907.19$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x155c…1b09backed Yes72c841.88$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.381323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-59.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7668…398fbacked No10c831.91$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes55c800$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-59.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05c8…0de1backed Yes63c777.5$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.493100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed No46c749.84$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.93616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes59c700$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.832853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x79c9…c040backed Yes52c634.11$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No46c618.5$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.516713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed Yes56c550$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-56%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69bb…0f5cbacked Yes54c474.03$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.03540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x746a…0772backed No9c468.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a35…6723backed Yes66c454.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes70c450$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.55435.2%19 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No21c420$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.281258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes62c401.44$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.44333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed No22c398.79$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8460%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccda…4937backed Yes76c326.98$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.98650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f67…f9e4backed Yes56c322.13$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+88%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x754f…4e38backed Yes54c298.13$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.14633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe852…dc76backed Yes62c277.56$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes56c260$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No17c237.75$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No37c225.86$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.338732.2%28 W · 59 L-10.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed Yes56c225$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No39c213.96$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda24…3db9backed Yes55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+74.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No44c199.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.54746.8%22 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe7e…c200backed Yes57c198.31$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked No45c191.03$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.476820.6%14 W · 54 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-60.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc430…3c45backed Yes54c189.98$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc04…196dbacked Yes56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No45c175$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c90…f36cbacked Yes59c151.52$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.52757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes53c150$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…515dbacked No39c135.17$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.171717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f87…735abacked No11c133.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26dc…e03abacked Yes55c129.15$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No19c127$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.771757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-42.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc5a6…995cbacked Yes48c125$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No32c123.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.613414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-53.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e5…be51backed Yes55c120$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf9f…c7bcbacked Yes58c110.34$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b86…53d7backed Yes55c107.27$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Yes52c105$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1534…044dbacked Yes67c105$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.552138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c00…0788backed Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd4f…cb79backed Yes47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.05560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e03…e19ebacked Yes64c98.64$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x555f…012bbacked Yes55c92$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.42729.6%8 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b7…e7f1backed Yes56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe860…cdaabacked Yes58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.211625%4 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-61.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b02…e5ffbacked Yes56c85.77$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3058…5412backed Yes67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.631353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+85.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc105…1e30backed Yes55c63.64$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f4a…1f4cbacked Yes56c62.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes53c58.9$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.682740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes57c57.89$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.891656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc0b…37bcbacked Yes54c52.04$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76aa…6d0ebacked No47c51.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x880c…440abacked No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2311539.1%45 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x250e…e864backed Yes53c45.85$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc28a…ac64backed Yes55c45.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.45757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5f…7d94backed No46c42.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No46c41.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac61…f5f7backed Yes51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc835…65dabacked Yes55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43b7…f1f4backed Yes56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56b6…00a2backed Yes56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f8f…df31backed Yes62c32.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x893f…ddcfbacked Yes56c31.52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.87735.1%27 W · 50 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x093a…9057backed Yes73c29.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed Yes55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.27785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.29per pick56cpaid+54.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60a3…f5e8backed Yes55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.27560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7363…39cabacked Yes54c27.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd012…d1b4backed No45c27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6d…f27abacked No46c26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdde4…8773backed Yes56c25.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.