Earnings · resolved market
Will General Dynamics (GD) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5487f06cd5051d832108803a7cc95615cd2ad9da5d72ba3e1b5d4efd57d31a1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a55…b632backed No | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…7f7fbacked Yes | 77c | 516.51$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.51 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 18c | 444.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked No | 25c | 397.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…0a59backed No | 30c | 356.11$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed No | 26c | 322$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 16c | 280.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 20c | 253.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b60…3695backed Yes | 80c | 210$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 18c | 177.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 25c | 160$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed No | 17c | 131.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…3cd6backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked No | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 75c | 92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 61c | 91.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…9868backed Yes | 73c | 89.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…3bc0backed No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 80c | 75.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed No | 19c | 69.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…aa1fbacked Yes | 75c | 66.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 77cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 24c | 61.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0e31…80b7backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…4957backed Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed No | 25c | 50.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…fe6abacked Yes | 80c | 50.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e2…73bebacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9272…0a19backed No | 30c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…42e3backed Yes | 70c | 31.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…b432backed Yes | 75c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…65e8backed Yes | 80c | 17.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 72c | 14.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.