Earnings · resolved market
Will Frontdoor (FTDR) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab8d700fb1a8afc20134af099006b7fa97a2c366e13b2d0a3d2c4d4d9649f209
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 1c | 2,931$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,740$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 13c | 830.86$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.47 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 11c | 700.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 10c | 560.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…2278backed No | 18c | 413.3$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a55…b632backed No | 13c | 299.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 21c | 254.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 79c | 151$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 27c | 146.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 13c | 141.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 15c | 131.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 10c | 106.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…13b7backed No | 19c | 105.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 14c | 100.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 75c | 80.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed4…a52abacked No | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 68c | 60.03$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 32c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.