Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5ec2524e8d5fdd9f4f7e1084ba14805fa78aacc9f31d58e0c713100c3a462ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $312,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $258,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $312,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 204 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f63…5b31backed Yes | 24c | 19,900$4,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,736.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…9980backed Yes | 27c | 18,400$4,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,912.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 10c | 15,552$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.42 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 11,500$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 31c | 10,113$3,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,161.61 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6232…d757backed No | 76c | 7,000$5,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…dde0backed No | 73c | 6,500$4,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…9d47backed No | 76c | 6,500$4,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…a9aebacked No | 76c | 6,400$4,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,523.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da9…f4e6backed No | 73c | 6,000$4,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,602 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…3a85backed No | 73c | 5,900$4,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2e…91ecbacked Yes | 5c | 5,400$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 29c | 5,380$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…8eaebacked Yes | 16c | 5,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…9c8ebacked Yes | 18c | 3,624$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…3bd8backed Yes | 15c | 3,132$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.66 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 28c | 2,962$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.05 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…04e4backed Yes | 10c | 2,858$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,736$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.17 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 15c | 2,417$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.75 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…adabbacked Yes | 21c | 2,342$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 20c | 2,284$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.98 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked Yes | 18c | 2,262$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 17c | 2,025$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.2 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,946$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.42 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c5…1adfbacked Yes | 30c | 1,830$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked Yes | 27c | 1,800$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…e05cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,770$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…8bfdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,746$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.86 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…0b32backed Yes | 37c | 1,738$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5921…3e13backed Yes | 12c | 1,695$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 1c | 1,649$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 45c | 1,541$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…b07cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,540$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 9c | 1,540$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.85 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…7b71backed Yes | 19c | 1,525$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 29c | 1,444$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.82 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 19c | 1,434$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.14 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4be…58f2backed Yes | 22c | 1,410$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 1,320$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.8 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Yes | 24c | 1,286$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 15c | 1,200$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.98 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,190$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5293…4b34backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f8…e156backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 10c | 977.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.46 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354a…8e81backed Yes | 52c | 948.69$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…71efbacked Yes | 51c | 920$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…af1fbacked Yes | 17c | 889.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…12efbacked Yes | 21c | 800$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 27c | 799.77$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.44 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes | 20c | 722.96$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…680ebacked Yes | 28c | 715.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb01…b32dbacked Yes | 22c | 694.42$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f2…d8efbacked No | 77c | 647.49$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 78c | 620.57$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…0ed5backed Yes | 35c | 619.3$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.02 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ef…9a31backed Yes | 21c | 601.41$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab39…c22fbacked Yes | 6c | 586.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 17c | 566.39$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0120…57b2backed Yes | 30c | 563.45$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 19c | 529.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 14c | 520$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ada…861abacked Yes | 11c | 511.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e71…c117backed Yes | 10c | 508.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa962…8978backed Yes | 20c | 500.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…6e99backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…acbabacked Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 13c | 499.36$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…744dbacked Yes | 25c | 480$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…4822backed Yes | 10c | 477.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…998ebacked Yes | 21c | 450$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a55…b632backed Yes | 19c | 446.6$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 9c | 438.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 17c | 433.1$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb56…89ddbacked Yes | 12c | 423.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…9ad7backed Yes | 6c | 422.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 14c | 391.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 5c | 386.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 18c | 360$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…d932backed Yes | 28c | 350.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 18c | 350$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b30…84ccbacked Yes | 8c | 333.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 15c | 325$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…3990backed Yes | 16c | 321.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 9c | 315.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c8…5449backed Yes | 51c | 312$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 11c | 304.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…bb12backed Yes | 15c | 299.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a40…12b1backed Yes | 17c | 299.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…c5edbacked Yes | 14c | 297.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 6c | 289.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 18c | 285.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 21c | 284.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 69c | 275$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…c0e2backed Yes | 52c | 272.56$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…34cdbacked No | 53c | 269$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed Yes | 30c | 265.01$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 18c | 247.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in 2025?this page
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in 2025?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in 2025?No won
- Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?Yes won
- Will the Fed cut-pause-cut in 2025No won
- Will the Fed cut-pause-pause in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.