Fed Rates · resolved market

Will the Fed cut-pause-cut in 2025

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x419c7ae262b7b17f41a077eeaec4b2d3881406ea3a4cf0d5984536fe0bd3c995

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 29, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $140,121
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $90,963

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,121 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes	0c	11,200$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.82	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-71.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee69…05d0backed Yes	14c	6,191$889 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$889.38	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	24cpaid	-84.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ed…504ebacked Yes	5c	5,426$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.39	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes	4c	4,656$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.31	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-76%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes	2c	4,396$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.94	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x387a…8eaebacked Yes	19c	4,000$760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$760	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe333…e05cbacked Yes	8c	3,598$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5499…0ed5backed Yes	3c	2,593$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.48	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed Yes	26c	2,074$533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c76…f344backed Yes	5c	2,000$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe19…5786backed Yes	13c	1,807$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.96	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b32…3f5fbacked Yes	18c	1,780$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes	6c	1,778$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.67	83	33.7%28 W · 55 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Yes	4c	1,594$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.46	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	22cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd601…fceebacked Yes	4c	1,530$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.29	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	36cpaid	-77.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b30…84ccbacked Yes	2c	1,521$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.96	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf10b…af1fbacked Yes	10c	1,500$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	2c	1,500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	70	17.1%12 W · 58 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-68.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb23…6c30backed Yes	2c	1,458$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes	5c	1,445$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.1	70	45.7%32 W · 38 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fd7…5a31backed Yes	9c	1,200$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,110$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.33	318	7.2%23 W · 295 L	-11.1wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-75%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b7f…a00cbacked Yes	27c	1,051$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.32	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes	5c	1,010$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-47%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbe0…2576backed Yes	4c	1,000$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.33	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes	2c	1,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	8	25%2 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcca0…3738backed Yes	17c	895.12$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77ef…9a31backed Yes	5c	793.29$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.99	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4904…65f2backed Yes	4c	751$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0309…22d1backed Yes	2c	726.19$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes	2c	698$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.58	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5245…1e72backed Yes	14c	694.88$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.18	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed Yes	3c	694$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.53	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc302…4a52backed Yes	19c	670$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.3	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa962…8978backed Yes	4c	609.76$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes	15c	600$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	54	38.9%21 W · 33 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes	10c	584.09$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.41	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	+2.4wins	+0.08per pick	27cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcee…bda5backed Yes	28c	575$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cf4…1b78backed Yes	3c	571.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes	22c	561.03$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.6	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes	11c	548$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.16	68	29.4%20 W · 48 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	31c	543$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.33	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e0…b648backed Yes	18c	500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-39%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	65	16.9%11 W · 54 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes	11c	409.32$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.03	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes	23c	400$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes	22c	399.99$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No	71c	399$283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.71	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d36…d5c9backed Yes	26c	396.78$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.87	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	7c	384.82$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.28	181	35.4%64 W · 117 L	-16.4wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes	18c	383$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.55	54	31.5%17 W · 37 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-29%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3d…498abacked Yes	27c	370$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.9	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb56…89ddbacked Yes	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6307…3748backed Yes	19c	300$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes	19c	263.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4775…c57dbacked Yes	29c	262.82$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.59	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes	13c	250$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	-3.2wins	-0.10per pick	29cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x24ae…3bd8backed Yes	11c	225$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-48%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1033…6113backed Yes	14c	208.4$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.21per pick	41cpaid	-70%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No	74c	193$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.18	51	31.4%16 W · 35 L	-5.4wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No	73c	169$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.73	52	30.8%16 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-43%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47b7…c5babacked Yes	19c	157.89$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa36c…ad29backed Yes	20c	151.96$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes	27c	150$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-5.6wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe8bb…9e52backed Yes	9c	133.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb7…5b4bbacked Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1439…eacbbacked Yes	8c	130$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	103	24.3%25 W · 78 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7230…a3d2backed Yes	15c	114.26$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.73	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed Yes	18c	105$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	52	34.6%18 W · 34 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	44	15.9%7 W · 37 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No	74c	100$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	123	22.8%28 W · 95 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	75c	87$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.75	240	46.3%111 W · 129 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes	23c	86.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.39	94	14.9%14 W · 80 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee82…f011backed Yes	29c	68.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes	31c	59.41$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.23	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-4.4wins	-0.22per pick	37cpaid	-74.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x52de…e8a2backed Yes	28c	40$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4083…363fbacked No	74c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.2	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	67cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the Fed cut-pause-cut in 2025this page
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in 2025?No won
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in 2025?No won
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in 2025?No won
Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?Yes won
Will the Fed cut-pause-pause in 2025?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the Fed cut-pause-cut in 2025

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event