Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb51b754a250c3b0e7089f35dd3ed27a7b149014130fd3b27c75404df73996baf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x387a…8eaebacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4b…75eabacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aec…889ebacked Yes | 2c | 8,643$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf04…11e3backed Yes | 2c | 6,737$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.72 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1a…80b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,608$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,545$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 2c | 1,520$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…b6afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,378$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,283$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26de…a945backed Yes | 2c | 1,262$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,155$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c26…cf53backed Yes | 2c | 1,061$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc489…a47abacked Yes | 2c | 1,005$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x963d…ec60backed Yes | 2c | 1,002$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…6e99backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4904…65f2backed Yes | 2c | 672.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in 2025?this page
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in 2025?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in 2025?No won
- Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?Yes won
- Will the Fed cut-pause-cut in 2025No won
- Will the Fed cut-pause-pause in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.