Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed cut-pause-pause in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x617c7a90eda304d6875abfefa3638ecedb2fffe3321aa207a9e23e8fc686fb75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $244,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 12,229$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…8eaebacked Yes | 7c | 8,000$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.87 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…9c8ebacked Yes | 11c | 5,637$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b30…84ccbacked Yes | 1c | 5,621$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,033$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…e05cbacked Yes | 6c | 4,707$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 8c | 4,561$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.22 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 4,557$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.16 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…cf88backed Yes | 4c | 4,250$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…2c78backed Yes | 13c | 2,642$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 4c | 2,253$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…a199backed Yes | 5c | 2,200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 2,111$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 1c | 2,013$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c76…f344backed Yes | 4c | 1,799$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,750$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,730$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -93.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 7c | 1,650$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…adabbacked Yes | 13c | 1,582$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,487$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…63dbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,479$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5921…3e13backed Yes | 7c | 1,477$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,326$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,272$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed Yes | 4c | 1,186$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 1,167$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 12c | 1,109$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.57 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb56…89ddbacked Yes | 5c | 1,094$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Yes | 3c | 915.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 1c | 870.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 837.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 7c | 809.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4904…65f2backed Yes | 9c | 808.46$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…1e72backed Yes | 12c | 791.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 4c | 647$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 597.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…1b78backed Yes | 3c | 571.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ba…2589backed Yes | 12c | 560.95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 470.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 6c | 436.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdab4…af90backed Yes | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0578…ebe8backed Yes | 13c | 373.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa835…b8dbbacked Yes | 7c | 294.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b8…7fedbacked Yes | 11c | 278.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…7636backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…13b3backed Yes | 8c | 263.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…af1fbacked Yes | 5c | 232.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82e…7fc0backed Yes | 7c | 214.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…31e1backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 6c | 198.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb967…3856backed Yes | 8c | 187.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1439…eacbbacked Yes | 6c | 182.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 7c | 178.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…0ed5backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc489…a47abacked Yes | 7c | 140.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…9074backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 106$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed cut-pause-pause in 2025?this page
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in 2025?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in 2025?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in 2025?No won
- Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?Yes won
- Will the Fed cut-pause-cut in 2025No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.