Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x557dddb6136459f0e47c106ad9ca1ff975498ce4414d086be54477e4012d45b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $497,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $557,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $497,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 372 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes | 70c | 25,259$17,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,546.93 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c6…2d9ebacked No | 31c | 13,900$4,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,377.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x872e…5ef3backed Yes | 32c | 12,775$4,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,687 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 71c | 12,595$8,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,633.36 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…05d0backed No | 36c | 11,803$4,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,190.61 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked Yes | 71c | 11,165$7,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,195.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 62c | 10,761$6,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,142.93 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 76c | 8,960$6,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,111.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…0b32backed Yes | 53c | 8,044$4,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,753.23 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 46c | 7,251$3,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,900.49 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x130b…6020backed Yes | 69c | 7,100$4,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,201 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e2…dfeabacked Yes | 71c | 7,057$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,056.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…ea8ebacked Yes | 68c | 6,800$4,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e0…fb31backed No | 68c | 6,515$4,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,430.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa4…f3ecbacked No | 68c | 6,260$4,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,256.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 75c | 5,072$3,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.1 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes | 71c | 5,000$3,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 56c | 4,465$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ff…acc5backed Yes | 75c | 4,392$3,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked Yes | 70c | 4,300$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 32c | 4,025$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.93 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 70c | 4,000$2,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 28c | 3,823$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 68c | 3,714$2,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.32 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 29c | 3,396$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8309…62b1backed No | 33c | 3,076$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…3727backed No | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked Yes | 70c | 2,405$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.53 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b4…ca9bbacked Yes | 72c | 2,357$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Yes | 73c | 2,325$1,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 47c | 2,296$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086d…fe29backed Yes | 46c | 2,256$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.88 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 59c | 2,232$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.19 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked No | 29c | 2,138$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 54c | 2,021$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.09 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…79b1backed No | 34c | 2,008$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac4…d344backed Yes | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2e…91ecbacked No | 29c | 1,927$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 1,918$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.23 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9764backed No | 39c | 1,904$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…f78ebacked Yes | 69c | 1,832$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…a199backed No | 31c | 1,798$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed No | 16c | 1,798$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.74 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -78%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…b07cbacked Yes | 63c | 1,758$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 42c | 1,726$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…1594backed No | 48c | 1,680$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…0ed5backed Yes | 61c | 1,635$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 37c | 1,624$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.68 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 79c | 1,570$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.41 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes | 41c | 1,550$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 28c | 1,519$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.77 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4be…58f2backed Yes | 77c | 1,428$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…2b06backed No | 37c | 1,400$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 31c | 1,350$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.4 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 58c | 1,337$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b30…84ccbacked No | 10c | 1,300$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 66c | 1,300$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 29c | 1,250$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.5 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3986…357dbacked Yes | 66c | 1,218$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 64c | 1,200$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…a17cbacked Yes | 71c | 1,190$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 23c | 1,175$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.85 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 31c | 1,086$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.96 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…1041backed Yes | 69c | 1,085$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed No | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Yes | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb5…ed22backed Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…e05cbacked No | 30c | 994.59$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed No | 32c | 980.93$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 32c | 948.98$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…71efbacked Yes | 47c | 920$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 66c | 908.09$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.01 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95d…b2a1backed No | 34c | 893.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed No | 29c | 863$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.27 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 36c | 815.26$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.23 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…4d83backed Yes | 41c | 800$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked No | 29c | 787.61$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.41 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5921…3e13backed Yes | 74c | 765$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…0221backed Yes | 65c | 743.81$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ea…08a5backed Yes | 59c | 725$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 51c | 700.27$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 30c | 700$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 66c | 700$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…942abacked No | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 27c | 690.62$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.45 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccba…11f0backed No | 33c | 676.23$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…efd6backed No | 29c | 674.98$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fd…4373backed Yes | 56c | 655.85$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ae…aa64backed Yes | 53c | 566.88$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked Yes | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…0e6dbacked Yes | 70c | 560$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd6…2199backed No | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…ed3ebacked No | 37c | 540$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 536.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x924f…134bbacked No | 16c | 534$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked Yes | 55c | 531.11$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9146…335abacked Yes | 54c | 520.04$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed No | 43c | 520$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 32c | 520$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…6d4dbacked No | 22c | 516.52$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?this page
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in 2025?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in 2025?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in 2025?No won
- Will the Fed cut-pause-cut in 2025No won
- Will the Fed cut-pause-pause in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.