Earnings · resolved market
Will Mastercard (MA) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2def86f0dd8833060353d0462072444a0b515d4f5ffc49d84506cfa12f25bdaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a55…b632backed No | 17c | 1,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2535…053fbacked No | 10c | 1,290$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.22 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed No | 14c | 1,211$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.66 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 11c | 1,191$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.6 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe86b…976fbacked No | 11c | 887.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 20c | 880.69$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.21 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…3cd6backed No | 9c | 846.71$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 9c | 614.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973b…822bbacked No | 9c | 560$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 11c | 515.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…5ba0backed No | 11c | 500$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed No | 11c | 469.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 10c | 460.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc2…ac7dbacked No | 17c | 448.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 10c | 424.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed No | 12c | 408.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…7662backed No | 13c | 376.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 5c | 342.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked No | 13c | 312.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed No | 8c | 269.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…11a4backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…2b66backed No | 12c | 200.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 23c | 180$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 14c | 153.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcf…2365backed No | 10c | 130.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0be…492fbacked No | 10c | 125.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…8c81backed No | 9c | 118.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…8486backed No | 9c | 115.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ede…f119backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…a307backed No | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 79c | 56.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafef…ddd2backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Yes | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…fc71backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 40 | 87.5%35 W · 5 L | +7.6wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.