Earnings · resolved market
Will International Business Machines (IBM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0869c3b2f29775e02f21395f5841926bb4218e6bd4a8256b2e1106d45835ad06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a55…b632backed No | 17c | 941.65$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.13 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked No | 16c | 599.93$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Yes | 77c | 431.85$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.33 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 16c | 411.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 19c | 407.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc3…e92ebacked No | 20c | 345$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 23c | 251.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 22c | 244.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5517…3c6bbacked Yes | 79c | 186.88$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 21c | 168.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…8b4fbacked No | 25c | 120.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…9bfdbacked Yes | 76c | 109.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…2527backed No | 23c | 107.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973b…822bbacked No | 19c | 105.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed No | 22c | 101.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 23c | 95.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 19c | 92.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 15c | 75.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 676 | 42.9%290 W · 386 L | -36.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…f471backed No | 24c | 71.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 29c | 68.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked Yes | 77c | 51.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…90babacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9f…e956backed Yes | 79c | 48.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 75c | 42.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…f940backed Yes | 75c | 41.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a82…bdc6backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0f…1b34backed Yes | 77c | 21.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 63c | 20.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.