Earnings · resolved market
Will T-Mobile US (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a8f28b826b1b59a1f3c5b754b8abcc08765a5d97709ce3cbad6cf0048c4caea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 78c | 7,326$5,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,633.32 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb21d…2c51backed No | 23c | 4,929$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a55…b632backed No | 19c | 2,102$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.45 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 3c | 940.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 704.73$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.11 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…738bbacked No | 12c | 599.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf37…2454backed Yes | 78c | 598.93$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.98 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 20c | 513.21$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 20c | 456.56$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…8b4fbacked No | 21c | 448.1$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…974ebacked Yes | 77c | 443.96$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.96 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 20c | 399.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 377.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2d…f033backed Yes | 80c | 376$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +73%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 6c | 371.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 52c | 345$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…f4a0backed No | 22c | 299.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 18c | 288.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 23c | 250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8070…f56bbacked No | 15c | 219.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed No | 25c | 217.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…215fbacked No | 23c | 213.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…a303backed Yes | 79c | 203.66$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 20c | 180$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed No | 47c | 178.33$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 21c | 163.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 10c | 153.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9277…4e7dbacked No | 25c | 145.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed No | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 25c | 126.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked No | 21c | 119.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…ed51backed No | 20c | 115.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…8f06backed Yes | 76c | 110.33$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…d37cbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked No | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed No | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…90babacked No | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Yes | 78c | 96.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 24c | 84.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 76c | 73.69$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…6512backed No | 28c | 71.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 75c | 68.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Yes | 78c | 67.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…6c6bbacked No | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272f…164fbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 79c | 46.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…95cabacked No | 24c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 78c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 76c | 43.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…5128backed Yes | 78c | 37.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…c4f8backed Yes | 79c | 30.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53a…8dc7backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd798…74e3backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…fe6abacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Yes | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…ab24backed Yes | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 71c | 17.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbc…858fbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.