TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$666,487
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$520,751

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $666,487 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 344 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8ec8…5709backed Yes20c77,945$15,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,479.21812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-77.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes1c33,831$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.788333.7%28 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes2c31,070$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.366516.9%11 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd200…e5f2backed Yes20c21,150$4,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,23010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe162…8a81backed Yes16c16,639$2,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,682.921216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes0c11,219$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.44037.5%15 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+211.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c10,823$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.343187.2%23 W · 295 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No75c9,624$7,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,392.6618135.4%64 W · 117 L-16.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2aac…1b36backed Yes16c9,291$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.471020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-70.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes6c8,629$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.129018.9%17 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62b3…209ebacked Yes10c7,859$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.81140%0 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c7,746$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.04254%1 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-77%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b0…8b95backed Yes36c7,001$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.68825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes2c6,916$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.376616.7%11 W · 55 L+0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid+51.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5a1…6877backed Yes5c6,615$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes8c6,477$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.794712.8%6 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4073…aa72backed Yes2c6,465$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd741…a353backed No80c6,400$5,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,280250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aa5…4c70backed Yes3c5,981$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53d7…7a30backed No80c5,900$4,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1801100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x832c…2d3ebacked No80c5,600$4,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1201100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes14c5,248$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.64714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-53.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b41…5dedbacked Yes13c4,773$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.2380%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9a4…30a6backed Yes17c4,373$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb590…15d3backed Yes2c4,217$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes12c4,088$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.652934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-34.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa1b3…9910backed Yes0c3,947$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3421…5cafbacked Yes23c3,531$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.54425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-65.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89aa…4793backed Yes29c3,503$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.6640%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb737…4cb4backed Yes30c3,485$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.1650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2c6…2d9ebacked No80c3,250$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes4c3,207$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.632015%3 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-74.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes17c2,987$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.91330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-54.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf657…108ebacked Yes18c2,834$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50080%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes4c2,612$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5452.2%1 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-87.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x771d…e0ebbacked Yes5c2,359$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5170%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fb6…74acbacked Yes4c2,058$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes30c1,952$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.982240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e2…b98cbacked Yes11c1,819$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c0e…1411backed Yes6c1,815$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.46520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-73%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb01…b32dbacked Yes12c1,810$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.43333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xece7…60bdbacked Yes6c1,790$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6850%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49ae…f3babacked Yes41c1,674$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.321030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-38.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x961a…50c7backed Yes7c1,646$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.54156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid+8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1dd…c8a5backed Yes30c1,642$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e5b…e385backed Yes2c1,637$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.41225%3 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-65.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9885…210ebacked Yes17c1,500$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.93100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes1c1,415$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2329.4%3 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-86.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x24c0…4a9cbacked Yes1c1,393$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-59.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed Yes21c1,363$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.39742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+71.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes9c1,350$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.52524%6 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c1,271$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.9410713.1%14 W · 93 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-52.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4145…6f14backed Yes3c1,259$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9140%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes9c1,200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.42626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-61.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x908f…35a8backed Yes2c1,200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No76c1,184$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.281643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae9…cfc5backed Yes9c1,171$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x039b…1889backed Yes6c1,132$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e1…24ecbacked Yes7c1,132$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes1c1,104$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.741729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick16cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7277…5e35backed Yes7c1,099$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c23…0266backed Yes2c1,090$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.442227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes1c1,086$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x840d…c5f5backed Yes16c1,083$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5771…fe1abacked Yes28c1,082$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes26c1,029$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.692429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6243…3e44backed Yes1c1,001$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1590%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ab…5f97backed Yes13c971.31$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2730%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No77c970.8$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.26829.4%20 W · 48 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e54…3871backed Yes13c964$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.13425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30f6…24dfbacked Yes5c962.18$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55aa…b607backed Yes14c936.57$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cc1…3c23backed Yes15c935.06$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f23…8c84backed Yes17c928.94$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba2d…47cbbacked Yes18c925.57$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed Yes12c895.63$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.155234.6%18 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa72c…a5adbacked Yes19c887.56$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa60e…d332backed Yes26c863$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.24850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb44e…7e68backed Yes13c852.23$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbf89…dc80backed Yes23c811.72$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes15c805.3$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22c3…289cbacked Yes12c794.98$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb19…cd27backed Yes10c788.34$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.02616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7781…2cd7backed Yes6c769.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde44…614bbacked Yes7c765.63$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.22333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3339…e5c0backed Yes18c764.52$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22c7…ca3ebacked Yes8c761.97$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.82911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-73.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6644…e9fabacked Yes3c756.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ea…f21abacked Yes15c753.13$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes5c738.98$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9190%0 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf743…ac84backed Yes15c708.83$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.311241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes3c701.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.171729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-31.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ccb…fcdcbacked Yes19c690.58$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1717…fe97backed Yes12c668$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f29…b0bdbacked Yes5c665$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes29c658.98$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.95812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb391…3b18backed Yes17c651.02$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3c…30bbbacked Yes22c644.68$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes2c633.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.537226.4%19 W · 53 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes16c631.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001931.6%6 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick18cpaid+41.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.