Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9be071c683559df0db045846df728daa3b0883133786208cbd7a6636d74b9a32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $666,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $520,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $666,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 344 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ec8…5709backed Yes | 20c | 77,945$15,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,479.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 1c | 33,831$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.78 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 2c | 31,070$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.36 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd200…e5f2backed Yes | 20c | 21,150$4,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe162…8a81backed Yes | 16c | 16,639$2,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,682.92 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 0c | 11,219$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 10,823$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.34 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 9,624$7,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,392.66 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…1b36backed Yes | 16c | 9,291$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.47 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 6c | 8,629$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.12 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62b3…209ebacked Yes | 10c | 7,859$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.81 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 7,746$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -77%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…8b95backed Yes | 36c | 7,001$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 6,916$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.37 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…6877backed Yes | 5c | 6,615$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 8c | 6,477$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.79 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4073…aa72backed Yes | 2c | 6,465$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd741…a353backed No | 80c | 6,400$5,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa5…4c70backed Yes | 3c | 5,981$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d7…7a30backed No | 80c | 5,900$4,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…2d3ebacked No | 80c | 5,600$4,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 14c | 5,248$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…5dedbacked Yes | 13c | 4,773$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.23 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a4…30a6backed Yes | 17c | 4,373$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Yes | 2c | 4,217$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 12c | 4,088$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.65 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…9910backed Yes | 0c | 3,947$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3421…5cafbacked Yes | 23c | 3,531$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89aa…4793backed Yes | 29c | 3,503$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb737…4cb4backed Yes | 30c | 3,485$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c6…2d9ebacked No | 80c | 3,250$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 4c | 3,207$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.63 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes | 17c | 2,987$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…108ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,834$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,612$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…e0ebbacked Yes | 5c | 2,359$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb6…74acbacked Yes | 4c | 2,058$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 30c | 1,952$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.98 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e2…b98cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,819$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…1411backed Yes | 6c | 1,815$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb01…b32dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,810$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…60bdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,790$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…f3babacked Yes | 41c | 1,674$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 7c | 1,646$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.54 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dd…c8a5backed Yes | 30c | 1,642$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…e385backed Yes | 2c | 1,637$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,500$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.93 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 1c | 1,415$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c0…4a9cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,393$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 21c | 1,363$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 9c | 1,350$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 1,271$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.94 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4145…6f14backed Yes | 3c | 1,259$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 9c | 1,200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908f…35a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 76c | 1,184$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…cfc5backed Yes | 9c | 1,171$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…1889backed Yes | 6c | 1,132$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e1…24ecbacked Yes | 7c | 1,132$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 1c | 1,104$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…5e35backed Yes | 7c | 1,099$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…0266backed Yes | 2c | 1,090$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes | 1c | 1,086$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x840d…c5f5backed Yes | 16c | 1,083$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5771…fe1abacked Yes | 28c | 1,082$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 26c | 1,029$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.69 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…3e44backed Yes | 1c | 1,001$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ab…5f97backed Yes | 13c | 971.31$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 77c | 970.8$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.2 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e54…3871backed Yes | 13c | 964$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…24dfbacked Yes | 5c | 962.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55aa…b607backed Yes | 14c | 936.57$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc1…3c23backed Yes | 15c | 935.06$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…8c84backed Yes | 17c | 928.94$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2d…47cbbacked Yes | 18c | 925.57$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 12c | 895.63$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.15 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72c…a5adbacked Yes | 19c | 887.56$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 26c | 863$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb44e…7e68backed Yes | 13c | 852.23$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf89…dc80backed Yes | 23c | 811.72$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes | 15c | 805.3$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22c3…289cbacked Yes | 12c | 794.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb19…cd27backed Yes | 10c | 788.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7781…2cd7backed Yes | 6c | 769.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…614bbacked Yes | 7c | 765.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3339…e5c0backed Yes | 18c | 764.52$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Yes | 8c | 761.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6644…e9fabacked Yes | 3c | 756.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ea…f21abacked Yes | 15c | 753.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 738.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 15c | 708.83$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 3c | 701.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccb…fcdcbacked Yes | 19c | 690.58$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…fe97backed Yes | 12c | 668$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…b0bdbacked Yes | 5c | 665$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 29c | 658.98$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb391…3b18backed Yes | 17c | 651.02$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3c…30bbbacked Yes | 22c | 644.68$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 2c | 633.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 16c | 631.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 18cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?this page
- Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Chamath Palihapitiya as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Elon Musk as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Rick Rieder as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Ron Paul as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.