TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Trump announce Rick Rieder as next Fed Chair in 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$164,849
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,838

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,849 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x611c…c982backed Yes0c23,881$24 inLost-$23.88303.3%1 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick13cpaid-89.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes1c14,479$94 inLost-$94.116516.9%11 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe85d…259fbacked Yes1c13,997$105 inLost-$104.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes1c8,222$68 inLost-$67.978333.7%28 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c8,142$86 inLost-$86.153187.2%23 W · 295 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4fd…6cc0backed Yes10c5,915$612 inLost-$612.21728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes1c3,613$36 inLost-$36.36156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-72.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec3…abb7backed Yes7c3,357$224 inLost-$223.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce6…60e3backed Yes1c3,345$27 inLost-$26.73450%2 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+114.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes0c2,739$11 inLost-$10.969018.9%17 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes1c2,166$25 inLost-$25.2560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes2c2,000$32 inLost-$326829.4%20 W · 48 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63ac…1494backed Yes5c1,867$87 inLost-$87.211225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1556…d8dabacked Yes3c1,818$48 inLost-$48.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes2c1,338$27 inLost-$27.42333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes1c920.29$14 inLost-$13.671752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick36cpaid+9.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes2c700$15 inLost-$14.72948.3%14 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2342…2300backed Yes8c563.7$46 inLost-$46.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc3…34f1backed Yes4c534.77$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x321e…c0f4backed Yes15c269.6$40 inLost-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44f2…1415backed Yes11c200$22 inLost-$22633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-53.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x651a…61dabacked Yes8c200$17 inLost-$16.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48f8…9166backed Yes11c180.09$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.