Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe42745319821ec7c531d38afcb0cb9d8a53a414efc3470824b4103204bef7c97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,013,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $256,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,013,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0969…f742backed Yes | 0c | 61,712$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…b85abacked Yes | 0c | 61,252$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…1165backed Yes | 0c | 61,248$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4401…63fbbacked Yes | 0c | 61,132$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac34…c034backed Yes | 0c | 61,006$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb39…d6d6backed Yes | 0c | 60,830$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x248c…23c9backed Yes | 0c | 60,609$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…dc46backed Yes | 0c | 60,377$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…fd68backed Yes | 0c | 60,277$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bd…76ccbacked Yes | 0c | 60,144$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7faf…3d29backed Yes | 0c | 59,911$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9b…725fbacked Yes | 0c | 59,776$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…1d3cbacked Yes | 0c | 59,506$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…f7d2backed Yes | 0c | 59,325$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed8…2170backed Yes | 0c | 59,292$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02e5…fe2ebacked Yes | 0c | 59,235$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…a897backed Yes | 0c | 59,224$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d3…facbbacked Yes | 0c | 59,090$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a2…c66fbacked Yes | 0c | 59,046$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…0ba6backed Yes | 0c | 59,028$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x837d…8491backed Yes | 0c | 58,968$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…a980backed Yes | 0c | 58,605$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…f989backed Yes | 0c | 58,596$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…d3bfbacked Yes | 0c | 58,269$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65aa…a8d5backed Yes | 0c | 58,204$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c68…1ac5backed Yes | 0c | 57,868$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7050…e94cbacked Yes | 0c | 39,823$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…e21dbacked Yes | 1c | 21,351$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.39 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470c…4790backed Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8750…b0fbbacked Yes | 0c | 19,271$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed4a…a011backed Yes | 1c | 12,873$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…1f4cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,918$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,977$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 9,172$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 8,854$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.4 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,008$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…e2c6backed Yes | 2c | 7,720$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.35 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…e0f4backed Yes | 9c | 6,890$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbe…8fb9backed Yes | 2c | 6,391$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…28a1backed Yes | 0c | 6,326$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,686$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6143…cf4bbacked Yes | 3c | 5,085$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70e…39c6backed Yes | 1c | 5,015$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 1c | 4,993$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa68b…1959backed Yes | 1c | 4,897$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 1c | 3,576$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929f…3983backed Yes | 0c | 3,502$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 1c | 3,400$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ca…b539backed Yes | 5c | 3,238$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…97b2backed Yes | 1c | 2,329$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…cffebacked Yes | 5c | 2,093$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…bd15backed Yes | 0c | 2,014$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,715$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…5ee2backed Yes | 1c | 1,685$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc5…4e22backed Yes | 2c | 1,674$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,641$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,589$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -93.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 2c | 1,150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c3…5400backed Yes | 3c | 971.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0999…1d75backed Yes | 2c | 925$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 6c | 892.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28d…563abacked Yes | 1c | 805.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e47…16fbbacked Yes | 2c | 756$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…adb2backed Yes | 3c | 737.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…79dcbacked Yes | 20c | 609.24$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 5c | 500.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -96.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…5685backed Yes | 2c | 489.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 5c | 478.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 5c | 445.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 4c | 383$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…eddbbacked Yes | 7c | 365.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…06bcbacked Yes | 25c | 302.57$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…22d3backed Yes | 4c | 284$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0960…455dbacked Yes | 6c | 242.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858d…77f8backed Yes | 10c | 210.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db9…c5aebacked Yes | 14c | 182.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 67c | 94.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025?this page
- Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Chamath Palihapitiya as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Elon Musk as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Rick Rieder as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Ron Paul as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025?No won
- Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.