TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick as next Fed Chair in 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$349,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,718

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $349,023 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c34,722$47 inLost-$47.08630%0 W · 63 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c23,424$31 inLost-$31.26310%0 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes0c17,959$19 inLost-$18.73100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x58fd…43a6backed Yes0c13,000$13 inLost-$1350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes0c9,480$20 inLost-$20.441729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-31.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x150b…99d4backed Yes3c9,139$300 inLost-$300520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-73.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes0c8,131$25 inLost-$24.524617.4%8 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb58…117bbacked Yes0c7,797$16 inLost-$1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9337…9dd3backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes0c4,000$14 inLost-$13.8316.5%2 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-71.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c3,087$11 inLost-$10.743187.2%23 W · 295 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ac…3c6ebacked Yes1c1,687$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda57…d8c3backed Yes8c1,259$95 inLost-$95.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes5c334.86$18 inLost-$17.7912322.8%28 W · 95 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No78c261.76$204 inWon+$57.334037.5%15 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+211.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.