NFL · resolved market
Chiefs vs. Raiders
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b718a0402aa0bb771e441d60402fef788a965c3a4b79d2de5fc053dc705cf45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raidersof Chiefs, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,325,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,386,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,325,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 547 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Chiefs | 64c | 120,000$76,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76,800 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Raiders | 36c | 102,000$36,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65,159.92 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Chiefs | 63c | 100,000$63,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62,999.99 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +10.2wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Raiders | 36c | 85,445$30,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,684.79 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafe9…1113backed Raiders | 34c | 69,933$24,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,843.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +190.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…39aebacked Raiders | 37c | 63,677$23,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,167.83 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed Raiders | 36c | 59,447$21,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,751.82 | 165 | 45.5%75 W · 90 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Raiders | 40c | 57,899$23,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,657.91 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Raiders | 37c | 54,054$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,054.05 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ae…5b69backed Chiefs | 1c | 53,021$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Chiefs | 65c | 40,484$26,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,371.03 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…ef4ebacked Chiefs | 64c | 38,290$24,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,514 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Chiefs | 64c | 33,600$21,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,503.99 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…3d56backed Raiders | 36c | 32,684$11,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,917.74 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Raiders | 41c | 27,363$11,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,218.68 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Chiefs | 53c | 27,349$14,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,454.62 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chiefs | 65c | 26,649$17,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,279.57 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Chiefs | 55c | 26,537$14,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,470.27 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Raiders | 45c | 21,865$9,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,992.37 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Chiefs | 64c | 20,968$13,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,489.46 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Chiefs | 63c | 20,788$13,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,074.06 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb889…a430backed Raiders | 36c | 19,984$7,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,789.88 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Raiders | 39c | 17,974$6,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,030.7 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Chiefs | 64c | 14,129$9,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,042.42 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chiefs | 64c | 13,695$8,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,766.08 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Raiders | 35c | 13,228$4,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,598.09 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked Chiefs | 64c | 11,800$7,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,552 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Chiefs | 64c | 11,679$7,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,474.55 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Raiders | 36c | 10,000$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,400 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Chiefs | 64c | 9,851$6,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,304.95 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Raiders | 36c | 9,759$3,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,245.76 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Raiders | 59c | 9,000$5,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,690 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…2a44backed Chiefs | 64c | 8,416$5,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,365.57 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…b0b3backed Chiefs | 64c | 7,776$4,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,976.4 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Raiders | 58c | 7,500$4,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,149.97 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Raiders | 36c | 7,132$2,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,566.61 | 318 | 54.7%174 W · 144 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Raiders | 47c | 7,106$3,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,745.84 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Chiefs | 64c | 6,800$4,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,352 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5729…49efbacked Chiefs | 68c | 6,721$4,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,570.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Raiders | 36c | 6,495$2,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,156.82 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4f…37b8backed Chiefs | 64c | 6,459$4,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,133.8 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -8.4wins | -0.29per pick | 67cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe04c…83b0backed Raiders | 32c | 6,410$2,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,358.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +141%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b1…faebbacked Raiders | 31c | 6,239$1,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,282.99 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…d469backed Chiefs | 64c | 6,200$3,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,968 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…9791backed Chiefs | 76c | 5,353$4,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,075.75 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…8c89backed Chiefs | 65c | 5,000$3,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Raiders | 36c | 5,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,199.99 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Chiefs | 67c | 4,871$3,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,248.09 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Raiders | 31c | 4,454$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,073.01 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Raiders | 58c | 4,444$2,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,866.48 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Raiders | 50c | 4,380$2,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,197.74 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Raiders | 37c | 4,296$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,686.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4e9ebacked Chiefs | 65c | 4,205$2,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,726 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Chiefs | 62c | 4,162$2,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,597.3 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Chiefs | 66c | 4,157$2,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,729.05 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Raiders | 37c | 4,054$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,554.05 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Raiders | 47c | 4,025$1,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,123.06 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Chiefs | 47c | 4,000$1,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,872.31 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x583f…2dabbacked Chiefs | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d9…00ecbacked Chiefs | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Chiefs | 44c | 4,000$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.99 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Chiefs | 64c | 3,851$2,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,464.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked Chiefs | 75c | 3,790$2,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,828.03 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Raiders | 57c | 3,530$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.26 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raiders | 47c | 3,326$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,753.97 | 273 | 48.7%133 W · 140 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Raiders | 37c | 3,200$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,031 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked Chiefs | 64c | 3,151$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,025 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Chiefs | 65c | 3,119$2,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,027.03 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Chiefs | 66c | 3,000$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990 | 206 | 46.1%95 W · 111 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Raiders | 34c | 3,000$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,966.27 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…3864backed Chiefs | 64c | 2,900$1,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,856 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Chiefs | 64c | 2,850$1,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,824 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Chiefs | 38c | 2,847$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.9 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Chiefs | 63c | 2,744$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,732.72 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Raiders | 31c | 2,734$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,874.79 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Chiefs | 1c | 2,709$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…68ebbacked Raiders | 37c | 2,703$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Chiefs | 63c | 2,500$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Chiefs | 64c | 2,406$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…7295backed Chiefs | 57c | 2,272$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.9 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Raiders | 36c | 2,250$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chiefs | 63c | 2,239$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.75 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…d61ebacked Raiders | 48c | 2,105$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.2 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Raiders | 67c | 2,105$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.25 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Chiefs | 54c | 2,060$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.2 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Chiefs | 43c | 2,039$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.3 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…3070backed Raiders | 47c | 2,000$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Chiefs | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8c…9390backed Chiefs | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06c1…c5dbbacked Chiefs | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…c411backed Chiefs | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Chiefs | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Chiefs | 57c | 1,946$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.39 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…3aa5backed Chiefs | 64c | 1,943$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.52 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Raiders | 40c | 1,886$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.83 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Raiders | 51c | 1,666$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.13 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Chiefs | 38c | 1,608$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.31 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Raiders | 51c | 1,602$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.01 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b2…f8d4backed Chiefs | 68c | 1,540$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6eae…fbaebacked Raiders | 32c | 1,538$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chiefs vs. Raidersthis page
- Chiefs vs. Raiders: O/U 35.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Raiders: O/U 36.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)Raiders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.