NFL · resolved market
Chiefs vs. Raiders: O/U 36.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0db82db9b261ae8873494f8b511bd62832c57531969770e2df7fdac86849627
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Over | 48c | 8,904$4,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,273.9 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 7,000$3,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,360 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 52c | 2,721$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.08 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 52c | 1,766$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.58 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 48c | 1,563$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafdc…c2a2backed Over | 48c | 1,463$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 52c | 1,327$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.96 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 1,030$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.09 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 942.92$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.17 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Under | 53c | 942.92$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.17 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 508.11$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.23 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 48c | 370$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.6 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 52c | 320$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.6 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff8…aa3abacked Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 48c | 270.83$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…9ba9backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd107…add5backed Over | 53c | 96.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Under | 53c | 93.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 65.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Over | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1725…7405backed Over | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 47c | 33.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Over | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…4dc6backed Under | 53c | 32.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 48c | 31.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 47c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chiefs vs. Raiders: O/U 36.5this page
- Chiefs vs. RaidersRaiders won
- Chiefs vs. Raiders: O/U 35.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)Raiders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.