NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cd23f3f373593985c3b46014f8694352ea1f4ae27ecef0b990ce2890c29ee2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raidersof Chiefs, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Chiefs | 49c | 34,804$17,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,122.22 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Raiders | 51c | 31,803$16,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,571.84 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Raiders | 57c | 13,941$7,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,977.6 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Chiefs | 43c | 7,120$3,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,061.6 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…0a52backed Raiders | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Chiefs | 45c | 5,836$2,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,615.48 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raiders | 55c | 4,141$2,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.27 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Chiefs | 43c | 3,966$1,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,705.38 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Chiefs | 49c | 2,347$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.28 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…8913backed Chiefs | 49c | 1,929$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Chiefs | 42c | 1,234$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.28 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Raiders | 50c | 1,197$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.29 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Chiefs | 43c | 1,186$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.78 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raiders | 56c | 1,160$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.4 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Chiefs | 42c | 434$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.28 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Raiders | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Raiders | 54c | 370.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.63 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Raiders | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Chiefs | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Raiders | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Chiefs | 48c | 130$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Chiefs | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Raiders | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chiefs | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Chiefs | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…cfe5backed Raiders | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Raiders | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0d…b99abacked Raiders | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Chiefs | 51c | 88.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0b…0445backed Chiefs | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Chiefs | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…794fbacked Raiders | 59c | 76.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Chiefs | 41c | 76.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…46f2backed Raiders | 53c | 57.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee3d…b68abacked Chiefs | 48c | 56.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Chiefs | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Chiefs | 42c | 51.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Chiefs | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Chiefs | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Raiders | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Raiders | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Chiefs | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Raiders | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)this page
- Chiefs vs. RaidersRaiders won
- Chiefs vs. Raiders: O/U 35.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Raiders: O/U 36.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)Raiders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.