NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e1131329d174f27928b5c72da13e5ed89983c2a171641de892b1e7c93e36fc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raidersof Chiefs, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1341…0853backed Raiders | 55c | 31,619$17,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,278.46 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Chiefs | 46c | 18,295$8,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,404.07 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Chiefs | 44c | 11,049$4,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,873.88 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Raiders | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,600 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Chiefs | 46c | 8,861$4,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,076.06 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raiders | 54c | 6,586$3,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,028.08 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chiefs | 46c | 4,900$2,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,262.55 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Raiders | 51c | 4,095$2,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,006.38 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Chiefs | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Raiders | 54c | 3,758$2,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,736.85 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Chiefs | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Chiefs | 44c | 2,500$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Chiefs | 46c | 2,195$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.7 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Chiefs | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Raiders | 53c | 2,149$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.11 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Chiefs | 48c | 2,078$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Raiders | 52c | 1,929$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chiefs | 48c | 1,792$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.83 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Chiefs | 44c | 1,646$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.24 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Raiders | 56c | 1,600$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Chiefs | 49c | 1,212$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.68 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Raiders | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.85 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed Chiefs | 10c | 1,111$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chiefs | 48c | 859$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.32 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Chiefs | 46c | 708.89$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.09 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Chiefs | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…2080backed Chiefs | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Raiders | 55c | 600$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Raiders | 53c | 592.33$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.35 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa51…a910backed Chiefs | 47c | 369.15$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Raiders | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Raiders | 53c | 290$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.35 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Raiders | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Chiefs | 46c | 177.24$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Chiefs | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Chiefs | 47c | 113.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Raiders | 56c | 104.84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Raiders | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Chiefs | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 183 | 36.1%66 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Chiefs | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Chiefs | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8356…3abcbacked Chiefs | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Chiefs | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Chiefs | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Raiders | 55c | 65.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Chiefs | 46c | 51.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Chiefs | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Chiefs | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…d9f6backed Raiders | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f5…353ebacked Raiders | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +7.4wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Raiders | 52c | 31.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Chiefs | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Chiefs | 48c | 24.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)this page
- Chiefs vs. RaidersRaiders won
- Chiefs vs. Raiders: O/U 35.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Raiders: O/U 36.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)Raiders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.