NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91377c764663e6cc4a03ebf1d7a4ba4a64572eb91b3cd0783e1c96dab90c3185
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raidersof Chiefs, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raiders | 61c | 5,373$3,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,111.19 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chiefs | 40c | 2,369$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.56 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Chiefs | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Raiders | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Chiefs | 39c | 1,428$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.92 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Chiefs | 42c | 1,172$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.51 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raiders | 58c | 891.3$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.94 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Raiders | 59c | 544$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.04 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Chiefs | 41c | 504$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.64 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Chiefs | 43c | 485.26$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.66 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Chiefs | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Chiefs | 43c | 250$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Chiefs | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 206 | 32%66 W · 140 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed Chiefs | 42c | 152.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Chiefs | 38c | 105$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Chiefs | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…269fbacked Raiders | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Raiders | 56c | 69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Chiefs | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Raiders | 58c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Chiefs | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)this page
- Chiefs vs. RaidersRaiders won
- Chiefs vs. Raiders: O/U 35.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Raiders: O/U 36.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)Raiders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.