AI · resolved market
Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc107c4e5d0fb185e924854487fab08c7fb10b8fe60157d42484df88bcc56ab7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,106 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd44e…3212backed Yes | 59c | 4,674$2,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,934.96 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,457$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…c74abacked No | 36c | 2,455$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.4 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -65%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99e…4561backed No | 33c | 770.65$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 39c | 762$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.88 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 68c | 724.97$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.34 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 44c | 645.02$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.56 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c2…3eb7backed Yes | 67c | 463.42$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 52c | 447.88$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.9 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 8c | 433$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 72c | 425.08$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.96 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 79c | 418.46$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.59 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 74c | 382$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 25c | 310.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56de…cfa8backed No | 49c | 303.49$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 25c | 303.27$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…3bcfbacked Yes | 72c | 276.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 14c | 261.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 36c | 223.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 37c | 202.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 63c | 196.64$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda2…48cdbacked No | 40c | 176.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3c…2c54backed No | 32c | 170$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked Yes | 70c | 160$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…23b5backed Yes | 66c | 152.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed63…e1c6backed No | 54c | 149.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…828dbacked Yes | 69c | 145.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 28c | 143.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 25c | 136.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 35c | 133.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8619…3935backed No | 49c | 123.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…e79fbacked No | 33c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…9a5ebacked No | 49c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…6e60backed No | 26c | 103.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 20c | 85.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 63c | 83.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a22…94d0backed No | 29c | 80.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 30c | 80.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -7.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed No | 34c | 59.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 63c | 58.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked Yes | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed No | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +61%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…f85fbacked No | 31c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…87cfbacked Yes | 58c | 51.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xacc0…3748backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c5cebacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…a33dbacked No | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 67c | 43.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 61c | 38.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 73c | 37.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed Yes | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 38c | 35.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x723d…90c4backed No | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b25…f0d6backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 63c | 31.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…aed2backed No | 64c | 27.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 57c | 22.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 61c | 20.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 55c | 20.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb18…96c4backed Yes | 67c | 16.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 10?this page
- Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 15?Yes won
- Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?Yes won
- Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 25?Yes won
- Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 31?Yes won
- Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.