AI · resolved market
Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff75d36f741294070871cd38faaf98b5e6d61e556cfc5daccebe3c9daad2401c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,329 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc31a…94f7backed No | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…3212backed Yes | 62c | 114.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed No | 14c | 106.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd646…8dcabacked No | 32c | 88.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 34c | 57.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…c74abacked Yes | 66c | 50.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -65%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc0…3748backed No | 38c | 49.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe07a…0e43backed Yes | 63c | 23.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 25?this page
- Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 10?Yes won
- Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 15?Yes won
- Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?Yes won
- Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 31?Yes won
- Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.